In a little over 24 hours, No. 3 Texas football will kick off the action in the College Football Playoff Semifinals game at the Allstate Sugar Bowl against the No. 2 Washington Huskies.
Texas-Washington in the Sugar Bowl will be the second of the two College Football Playoff Semifinal games to take place on Jan. 1. The first is the CFP Semifinal game at the Rose Bowl between the No. 1 Michigan Wolverines and No. 4 Alabama Crimson Tide. Michigan-Alabama will kickoff at 4 p.m. CT at the Rose Bowl in Pasadena, CA, on Jan. 1.
The matchup between Texas and Washington in the Sugar Bowl will kick off at 7:45 p.m. CT at the Sugar Bowl at Caesars Superdome in New Orleans, LA, on Jan. 1.
This College Football Playoff feels like the first in a long time where all four teams in the field have a legitimate shot to win the National Championship. Texas, Washington, Alabama, and Michigan all have realistic paths to winning the title.
Notable concerns for No. 3 Texas football vs. No. 2 Washington in the Sugar Bowl
For Texas to think about winning a national title, it must win the rematch from last year's Alamo Bowl against Washington in the Sugar Bowl on New Year's Day this postseason. This is a tough Washington squad that boasts the nation's top passing offense. Head coach Kalen DeBoer and the Huskies are led by the Heisman runner-up, super senior quarterback Michael Penix Jr.
Washington is very formidable at the skill positions, boasting a top receiving corps in the Power Five and a quality downhill running back in senior Dillon Johnson.
The Washington defense isn't elite by any means, but it's been slightly above average when compared to the rest of the Power Five. That is all this Washington team needed given how explosive and efficient the offense is.
Here are three major concerns for the Longhorns in the Sugar Bowl against the Huskies on Jan. 1
Washington's ability to hit the deep shot
Washington runs a pass-first offense in DeBoer's spread scheme. This offensive system emphasizes spreading out opposing defenses and connecting for deep plays through the air on intermediate and deep passes.
Not only does Washington boast the nation's top passing offense (averaging 343.8 passing yards per game), but they also lead the nation in deep passing completions and ended the regular season leading in deep passing yards.
Penix and the Huskies have consistently hit deep shots this season to his favorite targets in the receiving corps, redshirt junior star Rome Odunze and breakout redshirt sophomore Ja'Lynn Polk. Odunze and Polk were both 1,000-yard receivers during the regular season. Both ranked in the top 10 in the Power Five in deep receptions and deep receiving yards.
Odunze is the star of this receiving corps. He led the PAC-12 in receiving yards this season, with over 1,400. He is a consistent big play threat, averaging nearly 18 yards per catch. Nearly half of Odunze's receiving yards came on deep targets. He also led the nation in deep receiving yards this season.
Odunze is an absolute burner at receiver. He's got that combination of quickness and acceleration to get the jump on the opposing DB in coverage at the line of scrimmage. And his long speed allows him to generate separation to get open for Penix to hit him with precision over the top.
While Polk isn't as big or explosive as Odunze, he is still a fast receiver who can generate ample separation for Penix in the intermediate and deep passing game. You still have to worry about Polk, as he is one of the nation's most explosive receivers this season.
Washington's one-two punch of Polk and Odunze has given opposing defenses fits this season.
Considering one of the weaknesses of the Texas defense this season has been defending the deep ball, this is an area Washington is likely to exploit with the deep ball in the Sugar Bowl. Among Power Five teams and against Power Five competition, Texas has given up the 12th most deep completions and the 13th most deep receiving yards this season.
Texas needs the safeties to keep the play in front of them and the defensive line to get some pressure up the middle on Penix to disrupt his timing and throwing motion in the pocket. If Texas can get pressure on Penix and collapse the pocket and the safeties can hold their own in coverage, that will be in a good spot to at least limit the effectiveness of Washington's deep ball.
Texas's safety play against Washington's receivers
Speaking of the Texas safeties, they will be maybe the most important position group for the Texas defense in the first half of the Sugar Bowl against Washington. That's because Texas will be down true freshman safety Derek Williams Jr. in the first half of the Sugar Bowl, who's serving the last half of his suspension for a targeting call.
Williams was flagged for targeting in the second half of the Big 12 Championship Game on Dec. 2 against the Oklahoma State Cowboys.
Williams is Texas's best cover safety this season. Not having him in the first half of this game against the nation's top passing offense and arguably the nation's best receiving corps is obviously a huge detriment to Texas's secondary.
It also hurts Texas's depth at the safety position heading into the Sugar Bowl that Williams is out for the first half. And it's not just Williams out for the first half of this game that has hurt Texas's safety depth heading into the CFP Semifinals.
Texas also lost multiple scholarship safeties to the transfer portal during the December window, including senior Jalen Catalon and sophomore BJ Allen Jr.
In the Sugar Bowl, Texas is down to just three scholarship safeties. Those three are senior Kitan Crawford, senior Jerrin Thompson, and redshirt sophomore Michael Taaffe.
The Longhorns have been running Crawford and Taaffe as the first-team safeties in bowl practice this week. Given the issues we've seen at times this season with Crawford not consistently and properly reading developing route concepts, he is likely someone Washington will try to target in coverage in the intermediate and deep passing game.
To add more quality depth at safety heading into the Sugar Bowl, senior nickel Jahdae Barron has cross-trained at the position in practice. True freshman Jelani McDonald has also reportedly (per Inside Texas) taken more reps at safety in bowl practice.
If needed, I'd expect to see Barron taking some reps at safety in the first half of the Sugar Bowl.
Washington's potential to turn Quinn Ewers over on defense
Washington has given up a lot of passing yards this season. The Huskies rank 11th from the bottom in the FBS this season in passing defense, largely due to the volume of pass attempts they've faced in the PAC-12. Washington is the only Power Five team that had over 500 passing attempts on defense this season.
Nonetheless, Washington has given up a ton of production through the air to some mediocre to bad teams in the PAC-12 this season. Three teams with bottom-half passing offenses in the Power Five threw for over 275 passing yards against Washington.
One way Washington has overcome the yards its given up through the air on defense is by generating turnovers.
A staple of this Washington in PAC-12 play this season is the ability to generate turnovers in pass defense. The Huskies led the PAC-12 in interceptions in conference play this season with 12.
The Husky secondary is led by senior cornerback Jabbar Muhammad, who led the PAC-12 with a dozen pass breakups and led the team with three interceptions. Muhammad has been very sticky in coverage this season and made big plays in some huge spots for the Washington secondary.
He had three forced turnovers in Washington's top-10 road win against the No. 10 Oregon State Beavers during the regular season. Muhammad also had a key pick in UW's close win over the Cal Golden Bears. And he had multiple pass breakups and a key third-down stop in UW's biggest regular season win, against the Oregon Ducks on the road on Oct. 14.
Muhammad will be a key player to watch for the Washington secondary against redshirt sophomore quarterback Quinn Ewers and the Texas pass offense in the Sugar Bowl. The former Oklahoma State transfer has already faced Texas twice when he was a member of the Pokes defense in 2021 and 2022.
Ewers must be able to manage turnovers in this game to prevent Washington from getting too many opportunities to cash in with this high-powered passing attack on offense and from wearing down the Texas defense.
He's improved week-by-week since returning from the shoulder injury he suffered on Oct. 21 on the road against Houston. Ewers had a career day with a record-breaking 452 passing yards and four passing touchdowns in the Big 12 title game against Oklahoma State.
But turnovers have been a bit of an issue for Ewers recently. Since he came back from the shoulder injury in Week 11 against TCU, Ewers has tossed three picks in four games. And he's registered at least one turnover-worthy play in each of the last four contests.
When Texas has turned the ball over more than twice in games this season, they are 1-1. And that one victory came in overtime against the No. 23 Kansas State Wildcats.
Winning the turnover battle is a great way to ensure a better path to victory for the Longhorns. If Texas turns Washington over multiple times while Ewers takes care of the football in this game, that will keep Penix and the vaunted Husky passing attack on the sidelines for longer.