Texas Football: Why year 3 is make or break for Tom Herman

A tenure that could be lengthy for head coach Tom Herman with the Texas football program could largely be decided by what he does this coming season.

In his two seasons as head coach of the Texas football program, head coach Tom Herman has managed to do some rather remarkable things. Taking over for a team that had gone a combined 16-21 in the three seasons prior to his arrival, Herman arrived on the Forty Acres and in his first season was able to lead the Longhorns to a 7-6 record that had several opportunities to be slight higher.

In his second season, Herman was able to build on his first season and lead the team to a 10-4 record (the first ten win season in Austin since 2009 when the Longhorns played Alabama for the national championship), and a bowl victory over Georgia in the Sugar Bowl. If nothing else, Herman has given the Texas Longhorns hope and confidence, enough so that Sam Ehlinger was able to say with a smile after winning the Sugar Bowl “We’re back!”

Equally as impressive have been Herman’s recruiting efforts. While his first class ranked 25th, he was able to follow that up with back to back number three overall recruiting classes. At the present time, it seems likely that he will either three-peat that effort or exceed the ranking in 2020 with Texas currently having the number nine overall class. Another good season and that can easily vault up to the top three or possibly even the top class.

With all that I have said thus far being positive, how can the title of this essay be “Why Year 3 is Make Or Break For Tom Herman?” Hasn’t Herman proven himself? Yes and no.

Thus far in his career, Tom Herman has proven that he can establish a winning culture, turn an offense around, develop talent, win big games, and recruit. All of that is important and is reason to have faith in what Herman is doing and how he is approaching things.

But there are reasons for concern still. In the past two seasons, Herman has lost both of his opening games to Maryland, a team where most athletes on its roster would not receive a commitable offer from Texas.

He has also managed to let certain games slip away, such as the USC and Oklahoma games in 2017 and the West Virginia and Oklahoma St. games in 2018. He has not yet won a conference title, and has not yet led his team to the College Football Playoff.

The main reason however why this is a make-or-break year for Herman is two-fold: 1) This will be his first season with expectations 2) This will be the year where there will not be any excuses available.

As mentioned previously, when Herman first got to the Forty Acres the Longhorns had gone through back-to-back losing seasons. Just having a winning season was enough to quiet most (though certainly not all) people down. In the second season, he was able to improve enough to make the conference title and a major bowl game. Thus there was reason for optimism.

But Texas is a top 5 job, and has top 5 expectations. Those expectations include winning (not just making) the Big 12 Championship game and making the College Football Playoff. Those are the expectations, fair or not, that Herman faces this year. If Herman is unable to deliver on at least half of those, then he failed. It is that simple.

There will not be any of the excuses that he had available the first year either. When a new football coach is installed, he has to install his system, recruit his players, and establish his culture. In 2019, more than half of the players on the roster will have been recruited by Herman, and those that were not will have been under his guidance for two seasons.

Herman has the best quarterback in the Big 12 in Ehlinger, a talented running back in Keontay Ingram, a wide receiver with first round potential in Collin Johnson, as well as several of the best defensive backs in the conference in Caden Sterns, B.J. Foster, and Brandon Jones.

With this type of weaponry in his arsenal, Herman should easily win the Big 12 and challenge for a playoff spot. If he does not, the season will be looked at as a lost opportunity, and the expectations will only continue to get higher for Herman to prove himself.

How will Herman respond? We will begin to have an answer on Aug. 31 when the Longhorns take on Louisiana Tech