Texas Football: Realistic expectations for Longhorns in 2019

In less than six days, Texas football will be taking to DKR again to rack up the first win of the 2019 season possibly against the Louisiana Tech Bulldogs.

The 2019 football season will be the first season in a decade where Texas football is expected to be among the elite in college football. While fans always have the expectation that their team will be the team to beat in the coming season, the fact remains that the Texas Longhorns have had only one ten win season since 2009, and after Charlie Strong’s lackluster tenure certain people were starting to wonder when the 40 Acres would produce another team that would be a contender. Enter Tom Herman and Sam Ehlinger, and now we have our answer.

But the question remains: What are realistic expectations for the Longhorns in 2019? Some have speculated that the Longhorns have the talent to make the playoff, so that should be their goal. Others have said that since it has been a decade since the Longhorns have won the Big 12, that should be the goal. Then there are the very pessimistic people who just want a winning season (they will be ignored for the purposes of this story).

When setting a goal and establishing expectations, there are several things to keep in mind. First, when setting a goal it needs to be something that will challenge and stretch you. Second, a goal must be realistic. And finally, a goal should be something over which you have control. And for these reasons, the goal that the Longhorns as players and as fans should set for themselves is winning the Big 12. Allow me to explain.

Texas has the talent to challenge for a playoff spot. They have recruited well, developed their players, and since Herman has taken over they have not been blown out by anyone. That is the groundwork for a playoff team. However, they have not won the Big 12 since 2009, and without winning it they are almost certainly not making the College Football Playoff.

Moreover, making the College Football Playoff is, unlike winning the Big 12, out of the Longhorns control. Since the playoff is selected by a committee and it is possible that two teams from the same conference can be selected, there is no guarantee, even with a 12-1 record, that you will make it in.

So while that is the ultimate goal because you obviously want to challenge for a national championship each year, it is out of your control and is something that cannot be your main focus. At least not until after the conference championship.

Furthermore, winning a Big 12 championship would show that Texas is indeed back. While Sam Ehlinger said that Texas was back after handily beating Georgia in the Sugar Bowl, the fact remains that as of right now the Longhorns are not even the best team in their conference; that honor belongs to Oklahoma for the time being. In order to be back, Texas needs to be at the top of their conference. And that likely means facing Oklahoma twice and needing to win both times to keep playoff hopes alive.

This is also the best chance that Texas has had in a number of years to win the Big 12. They have the best quarterback in the conference, a capable backfield, a strong set of tall, fast receivers, a stout offensive line, and perhaps the most talented secondary in the Big 12 led by Caden Sterns, B.J. Foster, and Brandon Jones.

There is enough there to get it done. But in order to do that there can be no slip ups. Oklahoma has lost a lot in Kyler Murray and Hollywood Brown, but Lincoln Riley has done enough and developed enough quarterbacks to be given more than the benefit of the doubt.

The Big 12 is there for the taking, and if the Longhorns are able to win the Big 12 they will likely have a chance of also making the College Football Playoff. But the latter is contingent on the former. And for that reason, the realistic expectation for the Longhorns in 2019 is a Big 12 championship. Anything above that is a cherry on top. Anything less, given the talent and make-up of the conference, will be considered a failure.