Texas Football: Terrel Bernard could wreak havoc for Baylor

Junior Baylor linebacker Terrel Bernard could be in for a big weekend against Sam Ehlinger and this Texas football offense come Oct. 24.

The most productive player on the defensive side of the ball through two games for the Baylor Bears this season, by a good margin, is junior linebacker and former three-star recruit Terrel Bernard. A former commit of fourth-year Texas football head coach Tom Herman when he was employed with the Houston Cougars, Bernard has done great things for the Baylor defense over the course of the last three years.

Bernard is leading the way for the Baylor defense as he’s registered 21 total tackles, 3.5 tackles for loss, 2.5 sacks, and one interception so far this season. And last season, he registered a team-leading 112 total tackles, 9.5 tackles for loss, 4.5 sacks, one interception, two pass deflections, and three fumble recoveries (one of which was returned for a touchdown).

When the Baylor defense was one of the most vaunted in the Big 12 last season under now former head coach Matt Rhule, Bernard was one of the driving factors. He posted a career-best tackling, coverage, pass rush, and overall defensive grades last season. And he’s on the way to do much of the same in those similar categories this fall.

Bernard is averaging seven combined tackles for each missed tackle this season. Whereas last season, he averaged just under four combined tackles for each missed tackle. He’s much more efficient in that regard so far this season. And Bernard is also back to averaging roughly one pass breakup or interception per six passing attempts against him this season (which is a consistent ratio throughout much of his college career). He’s got 12 passing attempts against him in coverage, with one interception, and one additional pass breakup this year.

But where the real chip on the shoulder could come about for Bernard this fall is his lack of efficiency against the Longhorns in Baylor’s win in this game last season. He allowed more than 60 receiving yards against him in pass coverage, with no pass breakups or interceptions, against Texas last season. Bernard didn’t draw a single turnover, had no sacks or tackles for loss, and didn’t even have one incompletion when Sam Ehlinger looked his way.

The worst tackling, coverage, and overall defensive grades of the season arrived for Bernard last season against Texas than in any other game. But in Baylor’s 2018 nailbiting loss on the road to Texas, Bernard was pretty good. He posted a run of the mill defensive grade, but registered four solo tackles, only one missed tackle, three stops, and one pass breakup. He also had one tackle for loss.

Expect a bounce back performance for Bernard in this showdown against the Longhorns. Baylor will need it if they are to pull off the upset of Texas. The good news for Bernard and the Bears is that the Longhorns have yet to put away a single Big 12 opponent in three tries this season. Two of those three games in Big 12 play for Texas had them as at least two possession favorites, and the other had them as a slight field goal underdog in the Red River loss to the Oklahoma Sooners.

Herman and the Longhorns have had two close battles with Baylor in each of their last two meetings. The 2017 meeting wasn’t very close since Baylor was just then rebuilding under Rhule’s direction.

Another bit of good news for Baylor is that they’ve been a big struggle for Ehlinger. Now he missed most of the 2018 meeting against Baylor with a shoulder sprain, and missed all of the game in his true freshman campaign with another ailment. But it is insane that Ehlinger is still searching for his first passing touchdown against Baylor heading into this weekend’s matchup.

In his career against Baylor, Ehlinger registered a 61.9 completion percentage on 42 passing attempts, good for 235 passing yards, no passing touchdowns, and one interception. He also has just under 85 rushing yards and no touchdowns on the ground.

It’s rare that you get any Big 12 opponent that has forced more turnovers than Ehlinger has total touchdowns against them. But Baylor is the rare exception in this case. Baylor is also the lone Big 12 school that Ehlinger has not scored a touchdown in his career against.

This could be a really big opportunity for Bernard to continue his ascent through another breakthrough season with the Baylor defense. Bernard was really productive for the Bears last season, but he’s starting to get more attention this fall.

According to the ESPN Football Power Index, Texas has more than a 75 percent chance to beat Baylor this coming weekend. Texas is an 8.5-point favorite in the betting line over Baylor for this game too. This game is set to kick off at DKR on Oct. 24 at 2:30 p.m. CT.