Texas Football: Realistic expectations for Steve Sarkisian in year one

On March 8, Texas football head coach Steve Sarkisian celebrates his 47th birthday, and it is safe to say that he is very happy with where he is at this point in his life. He has recently coordinated one of the top offenses in college football history to a national title, landed the head coaching job at the University of Texas, hired a top-tier staff, and has recruited on pace to land a top three class in his first full cycle. If ever anyone was on a honeymoon, it’s Sark.

But eventually, honeymoons have to end and reality must be faced. While honeymoons are about celebrating a new life together, marriage is hard and requires adjustments. And the marriage between Sark and Texas had skepticism when it began, and has skepticism now. Why so?

To begin with, Sark does not have a record that suggests he can win at a high level. In his 7 years (give or take as he was fired midway through his second season) as a head football coach, the most games he ever won in a regular season is 8. He never won a divisional championship or played in a conference championship game.

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And his teams were never in contention for the playoffs after September ended. Not the best resume for a fan base that quickly soured on Tom Herman, who came to Austin with lots of fanfare after leading Houston for two seasons, never had a losing record, never lost a bowl game, and won 10 games and had a conference title berth in 2018.

But as we all know, winning quiets the skeptics. However, at jobs like Texas, you can’t merely have winning seasons; you have to be a perennial title contender. There are two kinds of coaches at Texas: The ones who won championships, and the other guys. If Sark wants to be in the former category rather than in the latter, he has to win and win now.

Texas may have an abundance of money and resources, but it does not have an abundance of patience. Remember, this was the program that spent 25 million dollars during a pandemic just to fire a coach who by most standards was doing a decent to good job. Good gets you an extension at many schools; it gets you fired at Texas. If you take the job, you will be great or be gone. It’s that simple.

So, what are realistic expectations for Sark in year one? In order for Sark’s first season on the 40 Acres to be considered a success, he must win 10 regular-season games and make the Big 12 championship game. Allow me to explain why this is the benchmark.

When the search to replace Tom Herman was ongoing, many Texas fans were skeptical of change because besides Urban Meyer they were not sure that there was a definitive upgrade, and Sark’s past record does not indicate that he such a thing.

So, Sark needs to do something that Herman never did while he was here to quiet the naysayers. Herman won ten games in 2018, but he never won 10 during the regular season; the tenth win was a bowl game win over Georgia. While this would not be an easy feat with road games against Arkansas and Iowa State as well as the Red River Rivalry, it should be doable.

And if they make the conference championship game, Sark will have the opportunity to bring Texas its first Big 12 Championship since 2009, something that alluded both Charlie Strong and Tom Herman.

When setting goals, it is important to challenge yourself, but you also need to be realistic. While the ultimate goal is to win the Big 12, make the College Football Playoff, and win a national championship, those things do not happen overnight. It took Nick Saban time to build Alabama into what it is today.

And Texas has real challenges ahead with installing a new offense and a new defense, finding a new QB, identifying its playmakers, resetting its offensive line, and a host of other issues. The talent is there to make a conference title run, but more time is likely needed for a playoff and championship run.

However, if Sark wins 10 games and makes the conference championship game in year one, we would have reason to believe that he has learned from his past mistakes and has what it takes to do something special during his tenure at Texas.

If he fails to do so, the skeptics will remain skeptical and there will be reason to wonder if the risk was worth it to pay such a steep price to buy out Herman and bring in Sark. Whether Sark is the right man for the job or the latest blunder from Belmont Hall will be decided in a few short months.

The Eyes of Texas are upon you, Sark. What will you do?