Texas Football: Why Steve Sarkisian must win now, not later

We all know what a mulligan is; it usually is a golf term but more or less it means that you get a second chance after your first one went poorly. But this is a narrative that is about to change for new head coach Steve Sarkisian with the Texas football program.

First seasons for new head coaches are often mulligan years; because it takes time to install your culture (not to mention your offensive, defensive, and special teams schemes), recruit your players, and get a feel for a new area, most programs don’t expect much out of a new head coach immediately.

Instead, when coaches are really judged during their second and third years, they have had time to acclimate and make the team fully their own. Given that Sarkisian is a first-year head coach at Texas, he has to install his system, appoint a new quarterback, face a challenging schedule, and expect Texas to go 8-4 this season.

This seems like he should fall right in line with this being a mulligan year, and 2022, and 2023 will be when he can really be judged. But I would argue that Sark is in a unique situation, and for that reason, he needs to win, and win now.

First and foremost, Texas is not in a bad spot roster-wise. According to Bud Elliot of 247 Sports, Texas has a 66 percent blue-chip ratio, meaning that 66 percent of their roster were rated 4 star or better recruits coming out of high school. According to that same report, only Alabama, Georgia, Ohio State, and Clemson have a higher ratio of blue-chippers on their rosters (LSU, Oklahoma, and Florida are tied with Texas at 66 percent).

For all of his failures at Texas, Tom Herman left Sark with a talented roster. So, while it would be a stretch to ask Texas to compete for a playoff spot this year, it would not be a stretch to think they can win this year.

More on why Steve Sarkisian needs some immediate success with Texas football

Second, 8-4 is something that Herman, Steve Sarkisian’s predecessor, could have done. Yet Chris Del Conte and company decided to buy Herman and his staff out during a pandemic year to give the reigns to Sark. This was seen as a controversial thing, as Sark’s highest win total during a regular season is eight wins at Washington in 2013 and eight during his first and only full season at USC in 2014.

While they won’t directly say this, Sark’s bosses expect more wins than that; and they expect them now. And there is nothing in Sark’s past that says he can win ten games during the regular season because he hasn’t done it yet. He needs to turn over a new leaf and show that he can be not just a decent coach at an elite job, but an elite coach at an elite job.

Third, recruiting. Recruiting is the lifeblood of college football, if you don’t recruit at a high level don’t expect to consistently win at one. While Sark is an ace recruiter and currently has the number 12 class in the 247 rankings, for Texas to be a top contender they will need to consistently have top 5 classes.

And that means that they will need to keep top players in the state of Texas home, whom they have been losing to other programs. Usually, a new coach will get the benefit of the doubt and sign a high class before having to prove himself (for example, Herman’s first two full recruiting classes in 2018 and 2019 were both rated number 3).

But Sark may not have that benefit in 2022, as many top-tier recruits want to wait and see if Sark is any different than his predecessors at winning. So Sark has no choice but to win now.

Last but not least, the Big 12 is a place that Texas should dominate for the most part. The Oklahoma game is always a toss-up, but Texas has had troubles beating Iowa State, TCU, and Oklahoma State consistently in the past seven years, all while having a very large talent advantage.

Herman is no longer head coach at Texas not simply because he didn’t consistently beat Oklahoma; he isn’t head coach any longer because he could not beat the teams he should have beaten consistently and made costly mistakes to close out games. If Sark can keep those mistakes to a minimum, there is no reason he can’t win in year one and be a shoo-in most years for the Big 12 championship game.

I have spoken about winning a lot in this article, allow me to briefly explain what I mean by that. Winning means that you consistently have 10 win seasons and making the conference championship.

That needs to be Sark’s goal in year one. It will be a tough task, but with the amount of talent at his disposal, the need to spur recruiting not just this year but in coming years, and the fact that he is in a conference that he can win in, there is no excuse to not win now.

Success in 2021 for Steve Sarkisian is 10 wins in the regular season and conference title berth; anything else is a failure and will leave fans and pundits wondering if Sark is not the third mistake in a row that Texas has made at head coach.