Texas Football: How luck played such a big role in the Herman era?

Most Texas football fans know all well and good how Tom Herman teams to play up and down to the competition in his time on the Forty Acres. Separation was just something that Herman teams were not adept to. That is evident by the results for Herman and the Longhorns from the past few seasons.

Once Texas got off and running under Herman during the 2018 season, with an appearance in the Big 12 Championship Game and a Sugar Bowl win over the Georgia Bulldogs, this fact became clear. Texas was going to play and up and down to the competition no matter what.

That was even a trend that Herman faced during his time as the head coach of the Houston Cougars. During Herman’s final year as the Houston head coach in 2016, the Cougars beat the No. 3 ranked (at the time) Oklahoma Sooners, and No. 3 ranked Louisville Cardinals by a combined margin of 36 points.

Ultra impressive for a Group of Five team that didn’t even win 10 games that season to beat two top College Football Playoff contenders by 36 points, right?

But then you get to the fact that Houston lost to the Navy Midshipmen, SMU Mustangs, and Memphis Tigers, by a combined margin of 32 points and you understand more of this trend for Herman-coached teams.

Houston looked like a College Football Playoff contender at the outset of the 2016 regular season after beating No. 3 Oklahoma, but then quickly faded down the stretch. That is a trend that sounds pretty familiar to Texas fans.

Some impressive wins and other narrow outcomes were the name of the game for Herman at Houston. And it was at Texas too.

In 2018, Texas beat Oklahoma, Georgia, and the Iowa State Cyclones. Most of those were close wins for Herman and the Longhorns, though. In that same season, Texas had losses to a mediocre Oklahoma State Cowboys team, a really bad season-opening loss to the Maryland Terrapins for the second straight year, and nearly fell short in a home non-conference meeting with the hapless Tulsa Golden Hurricane.

Although that decorated 2018 campaign for the Longhorns looked good on the surface, close games that could’ve gone either way showed a good amount of luck for Herman. Texas finished up No. 9 in the final AP Poll that season, with a record of 10-4 (7-3 Big 12).

Despite finishing up with a double-digit win season and a Sugar Bowl win over No. 5 ranked Georgia, Texas ranked at No. 19 in the final ESPN College Football Power Index. An FPI system that places a heavy weighting on scoring margins, strength of schedule, and strength of record, shows just how lucky Texas got at times in 2018, and how good this team actually was.

Then, we turn the page to the most recent season for Herman and the Longhorns. Texas had a lot of potential in a shortened and weird 2020 season in the midst of the COVID-19 pandemic. While there’s no doubt that there was a ton of interference in 2020, Texas had an opportunity to capitalize on a clear path to make the College Football Playoff.

Tom Herman era coming to an end for Texas football will bring a lot of relief

And that’s definitely not what happened.

Texas finished up last season with a record of 7-3 (5-3 Big 12). At one point, though, Texas owned a record of 2-2 with a near loss to the Texas Tech Red Raiders and a near-win over Oklahoma. That was the name of the game for Texas last year, though.

Texas had every single game where it faced a team ranked in the final AP Poll last season (four of them) either end in overtime or by nothing more than a four-point margin. It also went down to the final drive, if not overtime, in the meetings with the TCU Horned Frogs, West Virginia Mountaineers, and Texas Tech.

It took until the very end of the season for Texas to have any level of separation against worn-down Kansas State Wildcats and Colorado Buffaloes teams.

Nonetheless, the level of competitiveness Texas kept up with essentially every team resulted in the final FPI ranking to be at No. 6. Texas was by far the highest-rated three-loss team in the final FPI last season.

Texas also finished ranked higher in the strength of record rating last season to where the team was in the final AP Poll.

This weird trend of Texas’ records not matching up with some of the more advanced metrics and ratings isn’t a coincidence under Herman. The weird pandemic season wasn’t the first time we saw a Herman team play up and down to the competition and cut it way too close against team he should be beating no problem.

That is a trend Herman had dating back to his days as the Cougars’ head coach. And it’s a trend that Longhorns fans are likely very happy to get away from.

The point of talking about all of this is to silence some of the doubt and give patience and perspective to what the new coaching regime is able to do this fall.

New head coach Steve Sarkisian is bringing in a new coaching staff and new culture to the Forty Acres. Sark and the Longhorns need more consistency and rely less on just luck falling their way. But this is something that should end with Herman off of the Forty Acres.

Texas is set to open up the regular season slate on Sep. 4 at home at Darrell K. Royal-Texas Memorial Stadium against the Louisiana Ragin-Cajuns. That will be a quick start for Sark ahead of the road meeting with the SEC foe Arkansas Razorbacks in Week 2.

Meanwhile, Herman is now on to join the Chicago Bears and head coach Matt Nagy as an offensive analyst/special projects coach.