5 most winnable games for Texas football during 2022 season

Honorable mentions

UTSA, Sep. 17 (Austin, TX)

ESPN FPI Win Probability: 92.4

The second-most difficult of the three games during the non-conference slate for the Longhorns comes on Sep. 17 at home at DKR against the reigning Conference-USA Champion UTSA Roadrunners.

Texas does have a hefty win probability in the ESPN FPI, but I believe that is a bit deceiving. UTSA should be a winnable game for Texas, but this is one of the formidable offenses that Texas will face during the regular season.

Iowa State, Oct. 15 (Austin, TX)

ESPN FPI Win Probability: 79.4

Head coach Matt Campbell and the Iowa State Cyclones are never an easy out in the Big 12. And while Iowa State does lose key starters from last season’s team such as star running back Breece Hall and four-year starting quarterback Brock Purdy, I wouldn’t doubt how good this defense and receiving corps will be in 2022.

What helps the Longhorns’ cause, though is getting Iowa State at home in Austin. And in the last 10 years, Iowa State only has one win in Austin, which came by a mear three-point margin back in 2020.

Kansas State, Nov. 5 (Manhattan, KS)

ESPN FPI Win Probability: 74.4

Manhattan will never be an easy place to play for any Big 12 team. Yet, Texas has found more success against the Kansas State Wildcats of late, including some recent meetings at the Little Apple. Texas will look to extend its winning streak against Kansas State to six games this fall.

No. 5: Texas Tech, Sep. 24 (Lubbock, TX)

ESPN FPI Win Probability: 75.9

There will be a lot of anticipation for the Big 12 opener for the Longhorns this fall, which is set to come on the road in Lubbock on Sep. 24 against new head coach Joey McGuire and the Texas Tech Red Raiders. Texas Tech will come out with plenty of energy in this game, looking to avenge the dismantling they took from the Longhorns last season (70-35 win for Texas in Austin).

Texas has won the last two meetings against the Red Raiders in Lubbock. And this will be a winnable game for the Longhorns against a brand new coaching staff and a roster that turned over a lot of starters this offseason. Texas Tech ranks 90th in the FBS this year in terms of returning production (60 percent).