5 most winnable games for Texas football during 2022 season
No. 2: Kansas, Nov. 19 (Lawrence, KS)
ESPN FPI Win Probability: 93.6
Of all the losses that Texas should be able to avenge this fall no matter what, Sark and the Longhorns should be able to get it done on the road on Nov. 19 against the Kansas Jayhawks in Lawrence. This will be the opportunity Texas is looking for to finally get the Kansas monkey off their back.
Regardless of Texas facing Kansas on the road in Lawrence, this shouldn’t be a game that gives the Longhorns any troubles. With Kansas expected to finish in the basement of the Big 12 standings again this fall, this is a situation where the Longhorns must get it done.
Kansas does rank 10th in returning production this year, but they also rank outside of the top 100 in the FBS in the SP+ projections for the 2022 season.
No. 1: Louisiana-Monroe, Sep. 3 (Austin, TX)
ESPN FPI Win Probability: 98.9
The matchup during the regular season that gives the Longhorns the best odds to win comes in the opener on Sep. 3 against Louisiana-Monroe. This regular season opener for Sark and the Longhorns should give this team an opportunity to build up some real momentum before the non-conference schedule really ramps up against the Alabama Crimson Tide and UTSA in the two weeks following.
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The lone meeting between Texas and Louisiana-Monroe ever came back in 2009, when the Longhorns came up with the dominant 59-20 win. And it looks like it could be just as lopsided when Texas takes on the Warhawks as a nearly 40-point favorite for this opener.
For good measure, it won’t help ULM that they rank in the bottom five teams in the FBS in the preseason SP+ projections and outside of the top 80 in returning production.