The regular season finale is now just a few days away for head coach Steve Sarkisian and No. 24 Texas football. Texas will host the Baylor Bears at home for Senior Day in Week 13 to round out the regular season slate.
Sark and the Longhorns come into the regular season finale following a dominant 55-14 win over head coach Lance Leipold and the Kansas Jayhawks on the road at David Booth Kansas Memorial Stadium on Nov. 19. Texas was able to get its second straight road win by dismantling Kansas thanks to a career day from star junior running back Bijan Robinson.
The win over Kansas gives Texas a record of 7-4 (5-3 Big 12) heading into this matchup against Baylor.
Meanwhile, Baylor comes into this game with a record of 6-5 (4-4 Big 12) following a wild last-second loss to the No. 4 ranked TCU Horned Frogs in a rivalry game in Waco on Nov. 19. That was the second straight loss for Baylor.
But Baylor does come into this game having won two straight contests on the road.
Here’s a look at the betting odds and game prediction as Texas gets set to host Baylor at home at Darrell K. Royal-Texas Memorial Stadium on Nov. 25 (Black Friday), with the kickoff time set for 11 a.m. CT.
Texas football vs. Baylor: Odds for Week 13
Texas is an 8.5-point favorite over Baylor and the over/under is set at 55.5 (per FanDuel).
The moneyline also favors Texas (-330) over Baylor (+260).
The betting line for this game has moved in Texas’ favor by one point in the last couple of days since it opened up at -7.5. The over/under also moved up by one point since opening up at 54.5 over the weekend.
According to the ESPN Football Power Index, Texas has an 81.6 percent chance of beating Baylor.
Texas vs. Baylor prediction
Beating Baylor should be fairly straightforward for the Longhorns. Be mindful of the Baylor defensive front, as nose tackle Siaki Ika is one of the best defensive linemen in the Big 12 and can wreak havoc on the interior offensive line if they’re not ready to go on Black Friday.
Texas also needs to remain assignment-sound in this game, as offensive coordinator Jeff Grimes and the Bears will use a lot of pre-snap motion, misdirection, and trick plays to get some of their speedier athletes out in space. Key players such as wide receiver Monaray Baldwin and running back Craig Williams are definite home-run threats.
Stay assignment-sound on both sides of the ball, and avoid mistakes in the passing game, and Texas should be able to come away with a convincing win over Baylor this week.
I like Texas to cover the spread in this game. But don’t expect the same offensive outburst that Texas had on the road last weekend against Kansas. This Baylor defensive front is much better against the run.