Texas Football: Breaking down each bowl game possibility for Longhorns

DeMarvion Overshown, Texas Football (Photo by Tim Warner/Getty Images)
DeMarvion Overshown, Texas Football (Photo by Tim Warner/Getty Images) /

Now that the regular season has concluded, Texas football fans will be awaiting the postseason fate for this team. Texas is bowl eligible for the first time since the 2020 season. And it looks like we’ve got the possibilities for the bowl game placements pretty narrowed down coming out of Week 13.

After head coach Steve Sarkisian and the Longhorns finished up the regular season with a mark of 8-4 (6-3 Big 12), I could find only two realistic bowl game scenarios for this team. And one is definitely much more likely than the other.

But before we dig into the possibilities, let’s go through a quick recap of the regular season.

Texas finished up the regular season with two straight wins after the 38-27 triumph over head coach Dave Aranda and the Baylor Bears at home on Black Friday (Nov. 25). The first of the two straight victories to close out the regular season for the Longhorns came on the road in Lawrence over the Kansas Jayhawks on Nov. 19, by the convincing final score of 55-14.

This season saw Sark and the Longhorns make some pretty significant strides year over year. Texas already has three more wins this year than last, with the possibility to move that number to four during bowl season.

With that in mind, here’s a look at the two realistic bowl placements for the Longhorns heading into the postseason.

Bowl game scenarios for Texas football after the regular season

Bowl possibility No. 1: Cheez-It Bowl

Let’s start with the least likely of the two possibilities for the Longhorns at this point. Texas could technically still get placed in the Cheez-It Bowl this season. But that would take one big misnomer occurring for Texas to get a spot in the Cheez-It Bowl.

The first would be that the TCU Horned Frogs beat the Kansas State Wildcats in the Big 12 Championship Game next weekend, but still somehow don’t get a spot in the College Football Playoff.

Now, I do want to mention how unlikely it is at this point that TCU wins in the Big 12 title, but still gets snubbed from the Playoff. That would take a serious gaffe occurring from the Selection Committee for the Playoff for TCU to be on the outside looking in after going undefeated in this hypothetical scenario.

But, let’s say that this is what occurs, TCU is likely the team that plays in the Alamo Bowl, and Kansas State as the Big 12’s representative in the Sugar Bowl. Granted, the Selection Committee has snubbed TCU from the Playoff before (in 2014). So, even though it seems insanely unlikely, I still want to at least acknowledge this as a possibility.

In that case, Texas would still be the Big 12 team third in the pecking order for bowl selection. The Cheez-It Bowl would be the next-best slotting for Texas in this scenario.

Likelihood of Cheez-It Bowl: 1-2 percent

Bowl possibility No. 2: Alamo Bowl

In all likelihood, the bowl placement for the Longhorns will be the Valero Alamo Bowl at the Alamodome in San Antonio this year. Texas beating Baylor along with the loss for the Oklahoma State Cowboys to the West Virginia Mountaineers in Week 13 essentially ensured Texas’ berth in the Alamo Bowl for the second time in the last four seasons.

However, there are still a plethora of possibilities among the potential representatives from the PAC-12 for the Alamo Bowl this season. CBS Sports projects the Utah Utes as the team that will face Texas in the Alamo Bowl, which is a common choice coming out of Week 13.

There is still the possibility of Texas facing a team like the Oregon State Beavers if Utah does top the USC Trojans in the PAC-12 Championship Game next weekend.

Next. 4 takeaways from Texas' regular season of progress. dark

I’ll place a 90 percent chance on a Texas-Utah matchup in the Alamo Bowl as the postseason placement for this game. And I’ll essentially give it a 99 percent chance that Texas is going to play in the Alamo Bowl.

Likelihood of Alamo Bowl: 98-99 percent