Texas Basketball: How Marcus Carr became an analytical marvel this year

The most impressive Texas basketball player so far this season is hands down super senior guard Marcus Carr. In his second year wearing a Texas uniform, Carr is performing at a Big 12 Player of the Year-caliber level. He’s led Texas to multiple wins with big-time clutch performances in the second halves of games.

Carr is putting up the best numbers of his career this season for the Longhorns. In 17 games played so far this season, Carr has averaged 17.5 points per game, 2.8 rebounds, 4.3 assists, 1.6 steals, no blocks, and 1.5 turnovers while shooting 45.1 percent from the field, 41.1 percent from beyond the arc, and 80.3 percent from the free-throw line.

What really stands out to me about Carr’s box score stats this season is the shooting efficiency. Entering this season, he’s never shot better than 40 percent from the field. He also had never shot better than 36.1 percent from beyond the arc. He’s roughly six percentage points better in both shooting categories than the next-best season of his collegiate career.

But it’s not the counting stats that really do a nice job of highlighting Carr’s true impact on the Longhorns this season from an efficiency standpoint. You have to dive deeper into the advanced metrics.

How Marcus Carr turned into an advanced analytics darling for Texas basketball this season?

It doesn’t take long when looking at the advanced metrics to see the type of impact that Carr is having on the Longhorns on both ends of the floor. He ranks in the top five in the Big 12 in the following advanced metrics this season:

• 9.7 box plus/minus (fourth in the Big 12)
• 23.5 player efficiency rating (fourth)
• 3.2 win shares (second)
• .239 win shares per 40 minutes (third)
• 4.6 PRPG! (from Barttorvik, tied for fifth in Big 12)

All of those all-encompassing advanced metrics are either career bests or on pace to best a career-best (win shares) for Carr this season. It’s also worth noting that if you combine his advanced metrics with some of his box score stats, you can see that Carr is in a league of his own this season.

And there are some more intricate advanced metrics that also do a nice job of highlighting the positive two-way impact that Carr has had on the Longhorns this season. But we’ll dig into those more in a bit.

So, what has made the difference for Carr to have such a breakthrough in terms of efficiency?

I think there are three factors that have largely contributed to Carr’s breakthrough in advanced analytics this season: improved shooting efficiency/shot selection, getting to the bucket more often in transition, and better court vision when he’s got the ball as the primary initiator/playmaker for this offense.

Marcus Carr is taking higher percentage shots

We’ve already mentioned a few times how much of an improved shot-maker Carr is this season for the Longhorns than in years past at Texas, Minnesota, and Pitt. In fact, Carr has posted a 58.7 true shooting percentage this season, when his previous career-high was just 51.7 during his final season at Minnesota (2020-21).

One of the driving factors that have led to Carr’s improved shooting numbers is the fact that he’s getting more catch-and-shoot looks, especially from beyond the arc, than he did in the last few seasons.

The addition of sophomore guard Tyrese Hunter along with the uptick in possessions for senior forward Timmy Allen as the primary facilitator has allowed Carr to work off-ball more often in the settled half-court offense. As a result, he’s getting more off-ball and uncontested looks from deep.

So far this season, 80.4 percent of Carr’s makes from three-point range are assisted. Meanwhile, Carr never had more than 70 percent of his makes from beyond the arc assisted in any prior season of his collegiate career.

I’d also like to point out that Carr’s shot chart can tell us a lot about how he has shifted his approach to shot selection this season compared to last year. Last season, Carr was ice-cold shooting from deep essentially from any spot left of the top of the arc. He shot less than 15 percent on three-point attempts from the left side of the floor last season, compared to nearly 40 percent from the right side and above the break.

Yet, while he was much more efficient shooting from the right side and above the break from deep last season, he didn’t get off shots from those spots at a very high rate.

Despite those three spots from beyond the arc carrying the most value in terms of maximizing the points per shot for Carr last season, he only took roughly 24 percent of his field goal attempts from those areas.

Carr is taking a lot more shots from the areas where he’s most efficient from beyond the arc this season. He’s also shaken off his cold spell shooting from the left side of the break from three-point range. Carr is shooting nearly 50 percent from the left side of the court on three-point attempts this season, more than doubling his efficiency from those areas last year.

Moreover, there is a certain degree of luck and clutch shot-making that figures into Carr’s success this season in terms of his shooting efficiency.

In taking a look at Carr’s shot chart this season in second-half possessions with no more than 15 seconds remaining on the shot clock, you can see that Carr ranks in the 74th percentile or higher in almost every single frequent area he’s shooting from the floor. Hitting tough shots in clutch time late in games when the shot clock is ticking down usually isn’t a spot where players thrive.

But Carr is a real revelation in these situations for the Longhorns this season.

Not all of the improvements in shooting efficiency for Carr are a result of better shot selection and more confidence in pulling the trigger from the field. Carr is also looking more fundamentally sound with how he is approaching and gathering for his jump shots.

What I mean by this is that Carr is essentially taking fewer off-balance and fadeaway jump shots. He looks a lot more comfortable when he’s able to gain his balance and then get off his jumper, instead of trying some more difficult shots to create space from the contesting defender.

Scoring in transition is a spot where Carr thrives

To keep this part simple, I will say that Carr is one of the very best guards in the entire country in terms of his scoring ability in transition. And acting head coach Rodney Terry is definitely helping to get players like Carr and senior shooting guard/wing Sir’Jabari Rice in more situations where they run with the ball in transition.

Last season, Texas ranked in the bottom half of the NCAA in terms of fast break points per game, at 7.3. And so far this season, Texas ranks among the top 15 major conference teams with more than 15 fast break points per game.

And Carr is getting a lot of those fast break points for the Longhorns this season.

Carr ranks in the top five in the country in transition points per game this season, at 4.4. Last season, he was averaging less than one point per game in transition. That is a seriously notable difference that is contributing to Carr’s improved scoring efforts this season.

Carr is avoiding the unnecessary turnovers

I think one of the more overlooked parts of Carr’s game this season is how well he is taking care of the basketball. A common issue that Carr dealt with last season was forcing the issue and creating untimely turnovers for this offense.

Carr registered a turnover percentage of 14.7 percent last season, which was good for the 54th percentile among Big 12 guards. That was also the worst turnover percentage for Carr since his first year at Minnesota in 2019-20.

Yet, Carr is doing a better job of taking care of the basketball this season, as he’s registered a turnover percentage of just 9.0. That is good for the 90th percentile among Big 12 guards this season.

This all comes together with Carr posting the third-best assist-to-turnover ratio among the starting guards in the Big 12 this season, at 2.92. The biggest contributing factor to Carr’s improved assist-to-turnover ratio is the way in which he is getting his dimes.

Carr is getting easier passing lanes to higher-percentage shots on some looks in the paint to his teammates, where he’s getting 2.6 dimes per game. He’s also getting the ball out to the perimeter more often in drive-and-kick situations, where he’s averaging one assist per game.

Instead of pressing the issue with some tough passes through traffic, Carr is getting the ball out to open teammates on designed plays in the settled half-court offense.

And if you combine the assists that Carr is getting just from his passes to teammates within four feet of the rim and on open three-point attempts (from the corners and above the break), that already adds up to 3.6 assists per game. That is more assists than Carr averaged per game on all areas of the floor last season.

To sum this up, the fact that Carr is turning the ball over less while assisting the ball more often will obviously have a positive impact on Texas’ offensive output.

There are multiple ways that Carr has transformed his game in a very smart way to become one of the most efficient guards in the Big 12. The way that he’s leading for the Longhorns in terms of scoring, facilitating, and in transition has made for a complete breakthrough in terms of his advanced metrics.

Carr being on pace to blow his previous career-high in win shares out of the water this season is good proof that his heightened efficiency is having a resoundingly positive impact on the entire team.

After putting together a double-digit comeback win for the second game in a row against the Texas Tech Red Raiders at the Moody Center on Jan. 14, Texas holds a record of 15-2 (4-1 Big 12). Next up for Carr and the Longhorns is a meeting with the No. 12 Iowa State Cyclones on the road at Hilton Coliseum in Ames on Jan. 17.