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Texas vs. West Virginia prediction and odds for Saturday, January 21 (Value on total)

By Reed Wallach

Texas's Marcus Carr (5) react to an Oklahoma State turnover in the first half during the college basketball between the Oklahoma State Cowboys and the Texas Longhorns at Gallagher-Iba Arena in Stillwater, Okla., Saturday, Jan.7, 2023.Osu Texas Mbb
Texas's Marcus Carr (5) react to an Oklahoma State turnover in the first half during the college basketball between the Oklahoma State Cowboys and the Texas Longhorns at Gallagher-Iba Arena in Stillwater, Okla., Saturday, Jan.7, 2023.Osu Texas Mbb /
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Texas was on the wrong end of a tough road result at Iowa State, who is shaping up to be a top 10 team in the loaded Big 12 this season, and now stay on the road to face West Virginia.

The Mountaineers snapped their five game Big 12 losing streak this week against TCU and now will look to get back on track with back-to-back impressive wins in Morgantown. Texas has been able to stay in games and use their elite guard play to pull away late, is that in the cards once again on Saturday night?

Let’s check out the odds for this Big 12 showdown:

Texas vs. West Virginia odds, spread and total

Texas vs. West Virginia prediction and pick

I’m going to side with the under in this one, as both teams defenses should round into form in this one.

We saw the Mountaineers suffocate the TCU offense with their aggressive ball screen defense and we can similar similar results here as the team looks to force the ball out of Marcus Carr’s hands. Texas hasn’t been crashing the glass very hard in Big 12 play, ninth in offensive rebounding rate and their poor three-point percentage (30%) can lead to a ton of one shot possessions.

On the other side, West Virginia has played in high possession matchups, but the offense is still not humming and I’m not sure I fancy the matchup against the Longhorns defense. For starters, WVU has an effective field goal percentage of below 47% in Big 12 play and Texas is owed some positive shot regression as teams are shooting a Big 12 high 37% from three-point range. However, ShotQuality hints that the team is due for some positive regression due to some lucky shot making.

Overall, I think both defenses have the edge here. While the pace may be faster than expected, I think that each team’s ability to lock down the perimeter and defend primary actions should lead to an under game.

Track all of Reed’s bets at Betstamp HERE!

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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