Texas basketball vs. Tennessee: 5 bold predictions in non-con finale

The last game of the non-conference slate in the regular season awaits No. 10 ranked Texas basketball this weekend against former head coach Rick Barnes and the No. 4 Tennessee Volunteers. Texas and acting head coach Rodney Terry have an extremely tough test that lies ahead on the road on Jan. 28 against the Vols.

Tennessee will be one of the best teams that the Longhorns see all season. And that says a lot considering how deep the Big 12 is.

According to Kenpom, Tennessee is the No. 2 in adjusted efficiency only behind the Houston Cougars. Tennessee is also the No. 1 team in the country in Kenpom’s adjusted defensive efficiency, defensive rating, and points per game allowed.

Kenpom also rates this game as the most difficult remaining on the regular season slate for the Longhorns, which is still pretty significant given the strength of competition in the Big 12.

Bold predictions for Timmy Allen and No. 10 Texas basketball against Uros Plavsic and No. 10 Tennessee

Texas will clearly have a tall task on its hands to pull the upset against an excellent Tennessee team on Jan. 28. With that in mind, here’s a look at five bold predictions as Texas squares up to face Tennessee in the SEC/Big 12 Challenge this weekend.

Timmy Allen leads Texas in assists

A major challenge for the Longhorns in this game will be finding a way to move the ball from the inside out and vice versa on the offensive end of the floor. Tennessee is such an active team defensively, given its ability to get hands and arms in the passing lanes from any given spot when the opponent is in its settled half-court offense.

For some of the Longhorns players that I anticipate will have the ball in their hands a lot in this game in the halfcourt offense, such as seniors Marcus Carr and Timmy Allen, this means they will have to be as sharp as it gets in terms of seeing the floor. Allen especially will have to be careful to limit turnovers.

Allen turned the ball over four times last season, compared to just three assists, in Texas’ narrow one-point win over the Vols. Combine that with the fact that ranks in the top 30 in the country in terms of turnovers forced per game (just over 17), this looks like a daunting matchup for Allen, Carr, and the Longhorns.

According to Sports Reference, Jalen Wilson of the Kansas Jayhawks is the only non-guard to have a game with at least three assists with no more than one turnover this season. That tells me that Tennessee is essentially able to extremely limit what some of the better passing forwards and big men are able to do distributing the basketball. The limitation to that theory, of course, would be any forward and/or big man that is working in a really high volume as a facilitator (i.e. a point forward).

The fact of the matter is that Allen would have to take his game to another level to be able to slice up this Tennessee defense as a facilitator from the elbow or near the basket. Tennessee is so active and aware off-ball that making longer-distance passes often just results in a high turnover rate.

But Tennessee has shown the tendency to get beat against some of the better cutting teams. Arizona was able to find a way to beat Tennessee with some good off-ball movement and slick passes through the lane.

Texas could take a page out of Arizona’s book if it wants to find a possible way to exploit this insanely-proficient Vols’ defense.

Another way that Texas can minimize the turnover risk with Allen facilitating the offense from inside the arc is by getting some quick handoffs and pick-and-pop plays for mid-range twos and catch-and-shoot three-pointers. That could give Allen some easier passes that present a much lower risk of turnovers.

Texas also happens to be a good mid-range shooting team this season and can also thrive with some space in the catch-and-shoot three-point game.