Texas basketball vs. Tennessee: 5 bold predictions in non-con finale

Texas becomes the third team to score at least a dozen fast break points on Tennessee

There are a few reasons why Tennessee is such a stout team against the fast break this season.

First off, to even run in transition, you have to be able to get your opponent to turn the basketball over a lot. In three of the four games where Texas scored at least 20 fast break points this season, those opponents turned the ball over at least 17 times.

The lone exception to that was the win over Creighton where Texas was able to take advantage of the slower-moving frontcourt for the Blue Jays while essentially executing in the transition game to perfect. Creighton also has more aggressive guards than Tennessee, which means that Texas had more opportunities to take advantage of a Blue Jay defense that was often out of sorts.

Moreover, it’s insane to think that while Texas has scored at least a dozen points in the fast break this season in more than half of its games, that it might not even reach the double digits against the Vols. Tennessee has allowed double-digit fast break points to opponents in just three games this season.

The good news is that if you can score in the double digits in terms of fast break points against the Vols, that dramatically improves the chances of pulling off the upset. In fact, the only two teams that have scored at least a dozen fast break points against the Vols this season are undefeated (Colorado and Arizona).

Thus, if Carr and the Longhorns can successfully run in transition in this game, I think that gives Texas a huge leg up. Carr is scoring at a really high rate in terms of fast break points per game this season (at a clip of nearly five). He currently ranks second in the Big 12 in fast break points per game, which means he is the type of threat in transition that Tennessee has rarely faced this season.