Texas Basketball: Re-grading the Longhorns 2022 recruiting class
Dillon Mitchell, F
The highest-rated prospect at all positions in the Longhorns 2022 class was the elite five-star Montverde Academy forward Dillon Mitchell. The 6-foot-8 and 205-pound Mitchell was rated by almost every single major recruiting service as a top-five prospect in the 2022 class.
Coming out of high school, Mitchell was projected by a lot of those around the NBA media that cover the draft as a potential lottery pick in the 2023 class. Mitchell’s elite physical tools and insane athleticism pegged him as one of the top forward prospects in all of college hoops this season.
But Mitchell’s draft stock has taken a pretty big hit in the last couple of months largely thanks to a lack of development in his game, specifically on the offensive end of the floor. Mitchell hasn’t improved his shot at all and he hasn’t shown much of an ability to be a playmaker or even a facilitator more than five or seven feet from the basket.
And while Mitchell’s 62.5 field goal percentage looks good on paper, that doesn’t tell the complete story of his shooting efficiency this season. A simple breakdown of Mitchell’s shot chart goes a long way to understanding the lack of a threat that he poses in terms of scoring away from the basket this season.
Updated simple zone shot chart on the season for Dillon Mitchell. pic.twitter.com/aaHGkM0J8x
— Hook'em Headlines (@HookemHeadlines) February 1, 2023
Mitchell is very efficient shooting from around the basket this season, hitting his looks at a clip of nearly 80 percent near the rim. But he’s not really even attempting many shots away from the rim. A whopping 72 percent of his field goal attempts this season have come at the rim.
Another eight of his field goal attempts have come in the paint. That leaves only 19.8 percent of his field goal attempts on the season from anywhere outside of the rim or in the paint.
Mitchell also hasn’t taken a single three-point attempt on the season. And he’s shooting just 45.5 percent from the free-throw line this season, which clearly isn’t good enough.
All in all, both Texas fans and NBA scouts are going to need to see more shooting range from Mitchell if he ever wants to become a legit early-to-middle first-round draft prospect. I would like to see him at least attempting a few more shots from the mid-range and deep given that his fundamental shooting stroke is still pretty good.
Otherwise, there is a lot of value that Mitchell has brought to the table for the Longhorns this season in terms of his rebounding and one-on-one defending. He is maybe the most switchable and tough man-on-man defender in the rotation for Terry and the Longhorns this season. He leads the Longhorns in defensive win shares per 40 minutes, at a mark of .08.
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The latest 2023 NBA mock draft from Yahoo Sports sums it up well when talking about the hit that Mitchell has taken to his stock in the last couple of months. This mock from Yahoo Sports pegs Mitchell as the 23rd overall pick in the first round to the Sacramento Kings. Meanwhile, just three or four months ago, Mitchell was considered a lottery pick by almost every single mock draft you could find.