Texas Basketball: What’s next after the bad loss to Texas Tech?

The worst loss of the season thus far arrived for interim head coach Rodney Terry and No. 6 Texas basketball on the road on Feb. 13 at the hands of head coach Mark Adams and the Texas Tech Red Raiders. Texas fell behind near the end of the first half against Texas Tech, thanks to some pretty incredible three-point makes by the Red Raiders.

Terry and the Longhorns ultimately weren’t able to complete yet another second-half comeback after being down by a score of 44-35 at the break. Texas Tech shot the ball much better from the line and the field. And it won the battle on the glass, which ultimately gave Texas Tech the edge to rake in the upset 74-67 win at United Supermarkets Arena in Lubbock.

The loss to Texas Tech on Feb. 13 moves Texas’ record on the season to 20-6 (9-4 Big 12). Texas has now lost two of its last three games and is now in a two-way tie with the No. 9 Baylor Bears for first place in the Big 12 standings with a few contests remaining on the regular season slate.

Texas is also only a half-game ahead of the No. 5 Kansas Jayhawks, who will take on the surging Oklahoma State Cowboys at Gallagher-Iba Arena in Stillwater on Feb. 14. If Kansas tops Oklahoma State in Stillwater this week, that will put the Jayhawks in a three-way at the top of the Big 12 standings with Texas and Baylor.

So, where does Texas go from here after this bad loss to Texas Tech on the road on Feb. 13?

The path forward for Rodney Terry and No. 6 Texas basketball down the stretch

I’ll start off this by saying that a road loss is not usually something to sweat for too long in the Big 12. There are too many tough teams that play really well at home to drag on about this loss, especially when there are five important games remaining on the regular season docket for Terry and the Longhorns.

But the fact of the matter is that this loss to Texas Tech does make the path forward to winning the Big 12 regular season title that much harder for Texas.

Let’s say that the target number of wins to have full assurance of the Big 12 regular season title is 13, and a risky number is a dozen. Here is a look at the remaining schedule that Texas has left for the regular season.

• Feb. 18 vs. Oklahoma (Austin, TX)
• Feb. 21 vs. No. 19 Iowa State (Austin, TX)
• Feb. 25 @ No. 9 Baylor (Waco, TX)
• March 1 @ No. 22 TCU (Fort Worth, TX)
• March 4 vs. No. 5 Kansas (Austin, TX)

If Texas had defeated Texas Tech early this week, that would put them two games away from having a good path to winning the Big 12 regular season title with three home contests remaining on the docket.

Now, I would think that Texas will have to either win out at home down the stretch or be able to snatch one victory on the road against either Baylor or TCU to feel good about its chances to claim the Big 12 regular season title. Realistically, I don’t think that Texas is going to win out on the road given that it faces two top-25-ranked Big 12 foes that are really difficult to beat in their own building.

Let’s assume that Texas goes 3-2 in the remaining five games, putting it at a mark of 12-6 in conference play to close out the regular season. That matches the win projection by Kenpom for Texas to cap the regular season.

If Kenpom’s projection is correct, that would create a three-way tie between Texas, Baylor, and Kansas atop the Big 12 standings. That would make for the first three-way tie for the regular season title in the Big 12’s history for men’s basketball.

Final two games of the regular season are gigantic

What is clear, though, is that Texas’ final two games of the regular season slate, coming on the road against Baylor and then at home against Kansas, will be two of the most important of this entire campaign. Those two games could determine the Big 12 regular season title, as well as the seeding at the top for the conference tournament.

And while this is obviously a tough ask, if the Longhorns can sweep the regular season series against Baylor while avenging its road loss to Kansas in the finale, that would go a long way to securing the Big 12 regular season title.

It would also almost assuredly land Texas a one-seed or the highest two-seed in the NCAA Tournament this year.

Key seniors must step up down the stretch

The way that Texas will be able to close out the regular season on a high note is if the three most important seniors on this team play their best basketball when it matters most. Texas needs the senior trio of guard Marcus Carr, forward Timmy Allen, and shooting guard/wing Sir’Jabari Rice to be at the top of their game in the next few weeks.

Carr was essentially the most valuable player for the Longhorns so far this season. He’s had a career year where he’s averaged around 17 points per game, three rebounds, four assists, and two steals while shooting 46 percent from the field and 41 percent from beyond the arc.

Meanwhile, Allen is having another solid run for the Longhorns in Big 12 play as he’s averaged around a dozen points per game in conference play, five rebounds, three assists, and one steal. He’s on pace for another All-Big-12 team selection once it’s all said and done this season.

But Allen has proven to be a bit inconsistent in road contests in the last few weeks. In Texas’ last two losses, Allen has averaged just four points per game while shooting a measly 3-of-10 from the field.

Allen is just too important of a playmaker to this team to be pulling disappearing acts like that at key points of the regular season. He’s got tremendous court vision and is able to facilitate the offense from inside the arc while offering up a lethal mid-range game. Combine that with his cutting ability, solid on-ball defense, and high basketball IQ, and you get a critical two-way piece that is a major part of the starting five.

Texas holds a record of 13-1 in games when Allen registers at least 10 points and two assists this season. It’s clear that Texas needs Allen to be a factor game in and game out down the stretch if this team wants to make a deep run in the postseason and win the Big 12 regular season title.

Last but not least, Rice needs to continue to provide a huge spark off the bench for Texas. He’s played incredibly well as one of the best sixth men in the entire country this season as he’s the only reserve in the Big 12 that’s averaged at least a dozen points per game, four rebounds, and one steal while shooting at least 40 percent from deep this season in conference play.

If this trio is clicking on all cylinders, then the Longhorns will be an incredibly tough out in the next couple of months.

The goal for Terry, Allen, and the Longhorns down the stretch this season will be to claim the Big 12 regular season title and make a run at least to the Sweet 16 in the NCAA Tournament. Anything short of a Sweet 16 run in the Big Dance will feel like something was left in the tank for this talented and resilient Texas squad this season.