Texas Basketball: 3 x-factors that will make or break the 2023 postseason

With four games remaining on the regular season schedule, interim head coach Rodney Terry and No. 6 Texas basketball are hitting one of the most important stretches of the 2022-23 campaign. Texas is set to face four ranked opponents in a row to round out the regular season slate, starting on Feb. 21 at home at the Moody Center in Austin against the No. 19 Iowa State Cyclones.

Terry and the Longhorns will carry a record of 21-6 (10-4 Big 12) into the final four games of the regular season following a tight 85-83 win at home in overtime over the Oklahoma Sooners this weekend.

Texas is currently tied with the No. 5 Kansas Jayhawks for first place in the Big 12 standings heading into the stretch run of the regular season. The No. 9 Baylor Bears are also just one game behind Kansas and Texas in third place in the Big 12 following its loss to the Jayhawks on Feb. 18.

Texas controls its own destiny in the race to claim the Big 12 regular season crown, and get the top seed in the conference tournament next month. But it will probably need to win two or three of its last four games to claim the Big 12 regular season title.

What can make or break the stretch run this season for Texas basketball?

With that in mind, here’s a look at three x-factors for the Longhorns that will make or break the stretch run and the postseason for 2023.

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Texas must establish a stronger paint presence

Since last offseason, I thought that Texas could’ve used more depth in the frontcourt rotation. More specifically, I was calling out for the Longhorns to add more length to provide more rim protection and a more effective rebounding presence heading into this season.

However, Texas decided to roll with a frontcourt unit that essentially features four or five core players. Texas is namely rolling with seniors Dylan Disu and Christian Bishop and true freshman Dillon Mitchell at the five. Meanwhile, Mitchell, senior Timmy Allen, and senior Brock Cunningham have rotated minutes at the four.

The numbers do a nice job of illustrating the detriment that the lack of a true post presence had on the Longhorns in Big 12 play this season.

When Texas is outscored by a margin of more than a half-dozen in terms of points in the paint this season in Big 12 play, it holds a record of 1-3. And when Texas is outrebounded by a margin of more than three, it holds a record of 1-5.

While neither of those stats is particularly surprising given that it will be difficult for any team to win in the Big 12 while getting significantly outrebounded and outplayed in the paint. But the fact of the matter is that too many teams are finding ways to get the best of Texas down low on both ends of the floor.

The lack of a true post presence has clearly cost the Longhorns on quite a few occasions this season.

So, how does Texas fix this issue when it is outmatched in the frontcourt down the stretch?

I think the answer here has to be Disu.

What Texas needs out of Disu is someone that provides a consistent interior scoring presence while protecting the rim at an above-average level. And it goes without saying that Texas needs Disu to stay out of foul trouble as he has already fouled out of two games and was limited on the floor by running into early foul trouble in three others.

Disu is really the only one of those five Longhorns frontcourt players that have the length and rim-protecting ability of a traditional big man. He stands at 6-foot-9 and 220 pounds and is averaging around 1.5 blocks per game this season.

Not only is Disu the only Longhorn averaging more than one block per game this season, but he is also the only player on this team shooting north of 80 percent on field goal attempts at the rim.

There is a simple stat here that shows the type of impact Disu can have on games for the Longhorns when he provides at least a decent secondary scoring option down low and protects the rim well. When Disu scores at least four points in the paint and registers at least two blocks this season, Texas holds a record of 8-0.

To sum this up, it is critical that Disu is healthy and can stay out of foul trouble down the stretch for Texas to have someone that can provide a legitimate post presence on both ends of the floor.