Texas basketball vs. Iowa St: 3 bold predictions in revenge game

A string of four tough tests lies ahead for interim head coach Rodney Terry and No. 8 Texas basketball to close out the regular season in the next couple of weeks. Texas will take on four straight opponents ranked in the top 25 to finish the regular season slate.

It all starts on Feb. 21 at home at the Moody Center in Austin against the No. 23 Iowa State Cyclones. Texas will be looking for revenge after it fell short on the road in Ames at the hands of Iowa State and head coach TJ Otzelberger on Jan. 17, by the final score of 78-67.

In the last few weeks, both the Longhorns and Cyclones have found mixed results in Big 12 play. Texas comes into this game having won two of its last three contests and four of the last six. But the last two were not as easy as many would think as it took overtime for Texas to sink the Oklahoma Sooners at home on Feb. 19. And Texas just fell short to the Texas Tech Red Raiders in an upset loss on the road one week ago.

Meanwhile, Iowa State has lost three of its last four games coming into this Tuesday matchup at the Moody Center. That includes two losses to unranked teams in the Oklahoma State Cowboys and West Virginia Mountaineers.

Bold predictions for Marcus Carr and No. 8 Texas basketball against Jaren Holmes and No. 23 Iowa State

With this in mind, here’s a look at three bold predictions as Texas gets set to host Iowa State at the Moody Center in Austin on Feb. 21, with the tip-off time set for 8 p.m. CT.

Jaren Holmes goes off for 20 points

One of Iowa State’s best players, when it topped Texas the first time these two teams met this season, was the former St. Bonaventure senior guard Jaren Holmes. On Jan. 17, Holmes posted a game-high 21 points on an efficient 7-of-13 shooting from the field, 2-of-6 from beyond the arc, and 5-of-6 from the free-throw line.

He also contributed in other ways to that win for the Cyclones over the Longhorns last month. Holmes gave Iowa State three rebounds, two assists, and one steal while not turning the ball over a single time.

In Iowa State’s win over Texas on Jan. 17, Holmes was able to take advantage of some driving and cutting lanes he found against the Horns’ defense. Driving to the rim and finishing over some of the Texas guards he had a size advantage over (i.e. Marcus Carr), along with some of the smaller bigs on this team, was one of the main reasons why Holmes scored at such a high clip in that game.

Defending the drive to the hoop and protecting the rim just so happen to be two of the questionable areas of Texas’ defense in the last couple of games. Texas allowed three dozen points in the paint in each of the last two games against two teams in Texas Tech and Oklahoma that are averaging fewer than 31 points in the paint per game in Big 12 play this season.

Holmes played a really solid game against Texas last month. And slowing him down will be a key for Texas to give itself a real shot in this game on the defensive end of the floor.

That will be easier said than done, though, especially with how good of a scorer Holmes is.

And considering that Holmes is going to come into this matchup with a chip on his shoulder, this looks like a really tall task for Texas on the defensive end to slow him down. Holmes put up just five points on an awful 2-of-16 shooting from the field in Iowa State’s loss to the Kansas State Wildcats over the weekend.

When Holmes scores in the single digits this season, he tends to really pick up his game in the next outing. In games following a single-digit scoring effort for Holmes this season, he’s averaging nearly 19 points on 55 percent shooting from the field.

Given the level of motivation that Holmes will have coming into this one, combined with the success he found against the Longhorns the last time out, I think he could be in for a big game on Feb. 21.