Texas basketball vs. Iowa St: 3 bold predictions in revenge game

Marcus Carr, Texas hold Iowa State to under 20 percent shooting from deep for the second straight game

A major element of Iowa State’s offensive game is efficient three-point shooting. Iowa State ranks third in the Big 12, shooting the three ball at a clip of nearly 35 percent in conference play.

But Iowa State’s three-point shooting efficiency has slipped up in the last few games. In fact, Iowa State is currently riding its longest streak of the season in terms of the number of games it’s shot worse than 40 percent from deep (currently sitting at a half-dozen contests).

Iowa State has also shot worst than 35 percent from beyond the arc in five of the last six outings.

This recent trend in terms of Iowa State’s three-point shooting taking a hit obviously isn’t a good sign for the Cyclones down the stretch. When Iowa State shoots less than 35 percent from beyond the arc this season, it holds a record of just 7-7. That puts Iowa State’s record at a mark of 10-2 when it shoots 35 percent or better from deep this season.

So, what is causing Iowa State’s recent three-point shooting woes?

And how can Carr and the Longhorns take advantage of Iowa State’s declining efficiency in three-point shooting percentage in the last few weeks?

I think the answer to the first two questions is crystal clear. Iowa State’s two highest-volume three-point shooters in the first few months of the season, Gabe Kalscheur and Caleb Grill have gone cold in February. Kalscheur came into February shooting around 36 percent from deep (per CBB Analytics). He’s shot just 26.3 percent from beyond the arc this month.

There is a similar story for Grill, who came into February shooting the three-ball at a clip of north of 40 percent. Grill has shot a measly 23.8 percent from deep in February, nearly cutting his efficiency in half compared to the rest of the season.

Moreover, in terms of how Texas can keep Iowa State’s struggles from deep alive in this game is simply by sticking to its assignments and not getting lost trying to fight through ball screens. Simply put, Iowa State is not very good when you contest the three-point shot. Iowa State ranks eighth in the Big 12 this season on contested three-point jump shots, at a clip just north of 28 percent.

Iowa State also runs more pick-and-roll plays than the average Big 12 team (roughly 20 percent of its offensive possessions). And more than 35 percent of its set plays in the settled offensive half-court involve some type of ball screen.

Carr and sophomore guard Tyrese Hunter did a nice job of playing some disruptive perimeter defense in the win over Oklahoma last weekend. Carr, in particular, has continued his insane rate of steals in the last few weeks, including raking in six in the last three games.

As long as Texas can stick to its assignments on the defensive end of the floor while contesting the bulk of Iowa State’s looks from deep, I like its chances to limit this part of the Cyclones’ offensive game. And as I mentioned earlier, if Texas can limit Iowa State to less than 35 percent shooting from deep, there is a great chance that the Longhorns come out of this one as winners.