Texas Basketball: Why the TCU game is a must-win for Rodney Terry

The last road game of the regular season will take place on March 1 for interim head coach Rodney Terry and No. 9 Texas basketball against the No. 23 ranked TCU Horned Frogs. Texas will take on TCU at Ed and Rae Schollmaier Arena in Fort Worth on the night of March 1.

Terry and the Longhorns come into this game with a record of 22-7 (11-5 Big 12) after a convincing 81-72 loss on the road last weekend at the hands of the No. 9 Baylor Bears. Texas is now 1.5 games behind the No. 3 Kansas Jayhawks in the Big 12 standings with just a handful of contests remaining on the regular season slate.

Meanwhile, TCU is looking to position itself as a top-four seed in the Big 12 Tournament by winning its final two games on the regular season schedule. TCU comes into this matchup against Texas with a record of 19-10 (8-8 Big 12) following a narrow one-point road win over the Texas Tech Red Raiders last weekend.

TCU currently sits in fifth place in the Big 12 standings, just 0.5 games ahead of the Iowa State Cyclones. If TCU can win just one of its final two games, it will likely secure the five-seed in the Big 12 Tournament, which assures an easier path than one of the bottom four or five seeds.

Texas basketball and Rodney Terry have a must-win contest ahead on March 1 vs. TCU

Moreover, TCU will be looking to avenge its comeback loss against the Longhorns at the Moody Center last month. Head coach Jamie Dixon and the Horned Frogs will definitely come into this game with a chip on their shoulder after blowing a double-digit lead to Texas the first time that these two teams met this season.

This matchup between Texas and TCU obviously has plenty on the line for both teams. But Texas definitely has more on the line than TCU in this game.

There are a few reasons why this game is a must-win for Terry and the Longhorns on March 1 against TCU.

Stay alive in the Big 12 regular season title race

I mentioned earlier in this piece that Texas is currently 1.5 games behind Kansas in the Big 12 standings. The only chance that Terry and the Longhorns have at this point to get the Big 12 regular season crown would be to win their next two games, including the finale this coming weekend against the Jayhawks at the Moody Center.

Kansas has just one game remaining on its regular season slate, which is the aforementioned finale on March 4 against Texas in Austin.

Texas can split the Big 12 regular season title with Kansas if it wins out.

Depending on how the tiebreaker scenarios play out, Texas could also nab the top seed in the Big 12 Tournament and an automatic qualifying bid to the NCAA Tournament if it wins the next two games.

Fight for a one-seed on Selection Sunday

Each win matters for the Longhorns when it comes to locking in a one-seed on Selection Sunday.

As it stands now, Texas is projected as a two-seed in the NCAA Tournament by most major media outlets. The latest round of ESPN Bracketology still projects Texas as a two-seed and around the sixth or seventh-ranked team overall based on the tourney resume.

That still puts Terry and the Longhorns well within striking distance of a one-seed for the tournament. Although, I have a hard time seeing Texas managing to nab a one-seed if it falls short of TCU this week.

Keep the momentum going heading into the postseason

It’s always a matter of debate and who you talk to when discussing how much pre-existing momentum is actually relevant heading into the postseason. We’ve seen plenty of teams that had a ton of momentum heading into the postseason have early exits.

Even in the case of the Longhorns, former head coach Shaka Smart’s team was on a roll after claiming the Big 12 Tournament crown and a three-seed on Selection Sunday heading into the 2021 NCAA Tournament. Yet, Texas still managed to suffer an upset at the hands of the 14-seed Abilene Christian Wildcats to cap that season.

On the other hand, look at Kansas last season. The Jayhawks picked up some big wins down the stretch during the regular season against TCU and then Texas in overtime before winning the Big 12 Tournament. Kansas was hitting its stride at the right time, and it showed in the NCAA Tournament.

Head coach Bill Self and the Jayhawks wound up winning each of their first five games in the Big Dance last year by a margin of at least five points (more than half of which came by double digits). Kansas was doing all the right things on the court heading into the National Championship Game against the North Carolina Tar Heels, eventually reeling in a three-point win to take the title back to Lawrence.

I think Kansas’ late-season run last year proves that all Terry and the Longhorns really need to do is start to hit their stride a couple of games before the NCAA Tournament. A solid run in the final couple of games during the regular season and in the Big 12 Tournament can not only establish Texas as a legit threat for a one-seed on Selection Sunday but also build up just enough confidence to make a deep run in the Big Dance.

The combination of the postseason implications and Big 12 regular season title race definitely makes this contest against TCU a must-win for Terry and his staff. Terry’s shot of getting the Big 12 regular season crown will be dashed if Texas doesn’t beat TCU on March 1, which then hurts his chances of retaining the head coaching job heading into the offseason.