Texas basketball vs. Colgate: Prediction and odds college basketball
The day has arrived for interim head coach Rodney Terry and the two-seed Texas basketball to take on the 15-seed Colgate Raiders to open up the NCAA Tournament for both squads. The defending Big 12 Men’s Tournament champs Texas will duke it out with the Patriot League regular season and conference tournament champs Colgate to determine who will move onto the Round of 32 in the Midwest Region.
Terry and the Longhorns head into the Big Dance with a record of 26-8 (12-6 Big 12) following a decisive 76-56 win in the Big 12 Tournament final over the top-seeded Kansas Jayhawks on March 11. Texas has won four straight games heading into the NCAA Tournament, dating back to a convincing double-digit win in the regular season finale at home over Kansas on March 4.
Meanwhile, Colgate heads into the NCAA Tournament sporting a record of 26-8 (17-1 Patriot) following a convincing 79-61 win over the Lafayette Leopards in the final round of the Patriot League Tournament on March 8. Head coach Matt Langel and the Raiders have won nine straight games as they had a really dominant run in Patriot League play.
Here’s a look at the betting odds and game prediction as the two-seed Texas gets set to square off against the 15-seed Colgate in the Midwest Region Round of 64 at Wells Fargo Arena in Des Moines, IA. This game will tip-off at 6:25 p.m. CT on March 16 and it will be televised live on TBS.
Texas basketball vs. Colgate: Betting odds for Round of 64
Texas is a 13.5-point favorite against Colgate and the over/under is set at 149.5 (per FanDuel).
The moneyline favors Texas (-1200) over Colgate (+700).
According to Kenpom, Texas has an 89 percent chance of beating Colgate. And Kenpom projects Texas to beat Colgate 83-69.
Texas vs. Colgate prediction
In the last few days, we’ve talked about Colgate’s offensive efficiency ad nauseam. Colgate ranks in the top 10 in the country in offensive rating, field goal percentage, three-point percentage, assists per game, and assist-to-turnover ratio.
But Colgate is a much different team when it’s faced teams even from the top three quads this season. Colgate has faced top-three quad teams in nine contests this season, registering a record of 3-6 with a -5.1 net rating.
Colgate's four factors and key team stats from its 9 games played against teams from the top 3 quads (7 quad 3, 1 quad 2, 1 quad 1):
— Hook'em Headlines (@HookemHeadlines) March 16, 2023
-3-6 record
-(-)5.1 net rating
-108.6 offensive rating, 113.8 defensive rating
-50.5 REB%
-15.9 TOV%
-55.4 eFG%, 26.5 FTA Rate
If Texas wants to secure a comfortable win, it must not sleep on the offensive capabilities of this Colgate team. Texas must contest every shot from the Raiders if it wants to limit the insane efficiency that this team can bring to the table on the offensive end.
This Colgate team has faced some solid major conference tests this season, including a win over the Syracuse Orange on the road and a loss to the Auburn Tigers on the road early in the non-conference slate. So, Colgate won’t really be intimidated by the challenge of facing another major conference foe in the Longhorns.
And Colgate has appeared in the NCAA Tournament in each of the last four years (excluding the COVID-19 season), without securing a single Round of 64 victory. The Raiders will clearly be hungry to finally get that first-round upset it’s sought out since the late 2010s.
Meanwhile, the Longhorns will be looking to advance to the Round of 32 for the second year in a row. For that to happen, Texas must lean on the play of senior guard Marcus Carr and senior forward Timmy Allen to lead the way for this experienced and deep squad.
Texas could also use the secondary scoring support from the standout trio of senior shooting guard/wing Sir’Jabari Rice, senior big man Dylan Disu, and sophomore guard Tyrese Hunter. That trio of Rice, Disu, and Hunter stepped up in a big way for the Longhorns in the Big 12 Tournament while Carr struggled at times in the first couple of games and Allen was out with a lower-body injury.
Next. 3 elite recruits UT can win over with a deep run in March. dark
Terry has proven in the last couple of weeks that he can make the necessary adjustments and get his team up for some big games at home and at neutral sites. We should have that faith in him to get the job done again in the Round of 64 against Colgate.