Texas Football: 3 most overrated teams on 2023 schedule

TCU

Date: Nov. 11 (Fort Worth, TX)

The Big 12’s representative in the College Football Playoff last season, the TCU Horned Frogs, have high expectations heading into the 2023 season. Head coach Sonny Dykes and the Horned Frogs

My reasoning for saying the Horned Frogs are overrated is pretty simple compared to the last two teams on this list. TCU loses too many high-level difference-makers and too much production overall to perform at the level it did last season.

TCU loses the Heisman runner-up, quarterback Max Duggan, a first-round NFL Draft talent at wide receiver Quentin Johnston, and a top Big 12 running back from last season, Kendre Miller. That’s not to mention that TCU loses the other two of its top three receiving leaders from last season, Derius Davis and Taye Barber.

Another key departure for the Horned Frogs was the architect of last year’s top-10 offense (in points per game and offensive efficiency), OC Garrett Riley. The Clemson Tigers lured Riley away from TCU this offseason.

It’s very unlikely that Dykes and the Horned Frogs will be able to replace all these losses on offense without missing a step this fall.

And while TCU did have an objectively amazing and magical run in the Big 12 and the College Football Playoff last season, it came with a fair amount of luck. According to TeamRankings’ Luck Ranking, TCU had +3.3 wins above expected last season, which led the FBS.

To put this in perspective, the Longhorns ranked 127th or fourth from the bottom in the FBS in luck rating last season, with -1.7 wins above expected. That’s a five-win swing compared to the expected wins when you compare TCU’s luck rating with Texas’ last season.

More often than not, teams with this much luck see some level of fortune reversal the following season. That’s just the way the cookie crumbles in college football. Here are the following-season results from the last three Power Five schools with at least +3.0 wins above expected.

• 2021: Michigan State (+3.4 wins above expected, 11-2 overall record)
  • 2022: 5-7 overall record
• 2015: Northwestern (+3.9 wins above expected, 10-3 overall record)
  • 2016: 7-6 overall record
• 2014: Florida State (+3.0 wins above expected, 13-1 overall record)
  • 2015: 10-3 overall record

That’s an average dip of four wins year-over-year for the last three schools, with at least +3.0 wins above expected in the Power Five in the last decade.

Dykes must rely on the returning production on defense and some key transfer additions on offense (i.e., wideouts John Paul Richardson and JoJo Earle) to contend for a Big 12 title this fall. There will also be a lot of pressure on junior quarterback Chandler Morris as he takes the reigns on offense for Duggan this season.