Texas football vs. Kansas State: Prediction and odds Week 10

Maalik Murphy, Texas football. Mandatory Credit: Scott Wachter-USA TODAY Sports
Maalik Murphy, Texas football. Mandatory Credit: Scott Wachter-USA TODAY Sports /

Amid a loaded weekend of Big 12 games, No. 7 Texas football and the No. 23 Kansas State Wildcats will duke it out at DKR in Austin on Nov. 4. Texas-Kansas State is one of three games in the Big 12 this weekend that involves the top six teams in the conference standings.

The other two games of note among the top teams in the Big 12 this weekend is Bedlam between the No. 9 Oklahoma Sooners and No. 22 Oklahoma State Cowboys and a matchup in Ames between the No. 21 Kansas Jayhawks and Iowa State Cyclones.

Texas, Kansas State, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, and Iowa State all sit in a tie for first place in the Big 12 standings with records of 4-1 heading into Week 10.

The Longhorns are the highest-ranked team in the Big 12 heading into Week 10. But Texas and head coach Steve Sarkisian are looking to pass one of their biggest challenges of the season to maintain their status as the top-ranked team in the Big 12 in the College Football Playoff poll against a red-hot Kansas State squad on Nov. 4.

Kansas State has won three games in a row and four of its last five heading into this matchup against Texas. The Wildcats defeated the TCU Horned Frogs and Houston Cougars in the last two weeks by a combined margin of nearly 80 points, giving Kansas State a record of 6-2 (4-1 Big 12).

Texas boasts has won two games in a row heading into Week 10 after a decisive 35-6 win over the BYU Cougars at home in Austin last weekend. The win over BYU moved Texas to 7-1 (4-1 Big 12) on the season.

Here’s a look at the betting odds and game prediction as No. 7 Texas hosts No. 23 Kansas State at home at Darrell K. Royal-Texas Memorial Stadium in Austin on Nov. 4, with the kickoff time set for 11 a.m. CT.

Texas football vs. Kansas State: Odds for Week 10 2023

Texas is a 4.0-point favorite against Kansas State in this game, and the over/under is set at 49.5 points (per Caesars Sportsbook).

The spread has moved one point in Kansas State’s favor since the Longhorns opened as a 5.0-point favorite.

According to the ESPN matchup predictor, Texas has a 66.8 percent chance of beating Kansas State in Week 10.

Texas football vs. Kansas State prediction

The Kansas State game kicks off a difficult stretch of the Longhorns’ schedule in Big 12 play in November. Texas faces TCU and Iowa State in two consecutive weekends on the road in mid-November.

But this matchup against Kansas State is probably the toughest one for the Longhorns during the November slate in conference play. Kansas State has one of the best ground games in the Big 12 this season, which is heightened in terms of the difficulty to prepare to face it for opposing DCs with the two-quarterback system OC Collin Klein and the Wildcats run since three or four weeks ago.

Kansas State presents two dual-threat quarterbacks in this two-QB system, including senior Will Howard and the elusive true freshman Avery Johnson.

The Wildcats’ defense is also an experienced group that plays the 3-3-5 flyover defensive scheme that has given Sark and the Longhorns issues in the last few years.

This will be a very tough test for a Longhorns squad that will still be without redshirt sophomore quarterback Quinn Ewers after he suffered a shoulder injury in the win over Houston two weeks ago. Redshirt freshman quarterback Maalik Murphy will get his second career start this weekend against Kansas State.

I’m going with a close win for the Longhorns, where Kansas State nearly beats Texas for the first time in over a half-decade.

Final score prediction: Texas-30, Kansas State-27

Next. 3 problematic Kansas State players vs. Texas. dark