Texas football vs. TCU: Prediction and odds Week 11

Quinn Ewers, Texas football (Photo by Tim Warner/Getty Images)
Quinn Ewers, Texas football (Photo by Tim Warner/Getty Images) /

No. 7 Texas football will get redshirt sophomore starting quarterback Quinn Ewers back for the Big 12 matchup on the road in Week 11 in Fort Worth against head coach Sonny Dykes and the TCU Horned Frogs. In his Thursday press conference on Nov. 9, Sarkisian announced Ewers will get the start vs. TCU on Nov. 11 after he missed the last two starts due to a shoulder injury.

While Ewers was out with the shoulder injury, redshirt freshman quarterback Maalik Murphy led the Longhorns to two consecutive wins against the BYU Cougars on Oct. 28 and the No. 23 Kansas State Wildcats on Nov. 4. Murphy also led the game-winning drive for the Longhorns in the narrow 31-24 win on the road on Oct. 21 over the Houston Cougars.

Texas rides a three-game winning streak and a record of 8-1 (5-1 Big 12) into this matchup on the road against TCU.

Dykes and the Horned Frogs are struggling of late, having lost two games in a row and four of their last five. TCU enters Week 11 with a record of 4-5 (2-4 Big 12).

Here’s a look at the betting odds and game prediction as No. 7 Texas hits the road to travel to Fort Worth to face TCU at Amon G. Carter Stadium on Nov. 11, with the kickoff time set for 6:30 p.m. CT.

Texas football vs. TCU: Odds for Week 11 2023

Texas is a 12.0-point favorite against TCU in this game, and the over/under is set at 54.5 points (per Caesars Sportsbook).

The spread has moved two points in Texas’ favor since the Longhorns opened as a 5.0-point favorite.

According to the ESPN matchup predictor, Texas has a 77.2 percent chance of beating TCU in Week 11.

Texas football vs. TCU prediction

Texas got a big boost heading into this Week 11 matchup against TCU with the announcement that Ewers will return to the lineup as the starting quarterback after missing the last two starts. Ewers showed major improvement year-over-year in the seven games he played this season prior to suffering the shoulder injury against Houston on Oct. 21.

Ewers is 6-1 in the games he’s started for the Longhorns this season and 3-0 in true road games. Two of those three road starts resulted in double-digit wins for the Longhorns over the No. 3 Alabama Crimson Tide in Week 3 and the Baylor Bears in the Big 12 opener in Week 4.

Texas can continue their revenge tour in Big 12 play by getting a win over TCU for the second time in the last three seasons. TCU defeated the Longhorns when these two teams met at DKR in Austin last season. But Texas won the last meeting between these teams in Fort Worth in 2021.

TCU is starting redshirt freshman quarterback Josh Hoover against Texas this weekend. Hoover has started the last three games for the Horned Frogs, which has resulted in a 1-2 record. His first start was a 44-11 dominant win for the Frogs over BYU, where Hoover threw for nearly 450 yards, four touchdowns, and two interceptions.

After getting off to a stellar start in his first career start against BYU in Week 7, Hoover has struggled in the last two weeks. He’s completed well under 60 percent of his pass attempts for 270 yards per game, one touchdown, and three interceptions.

Sophomore Chandler Morris was TCU’s starting quarterback for the second year in a row coming into this season. But Morris suffered an MCL injury in TCU’s Week 6 loss to the Iowa State Cyclones in Ames. While Dykes said in his press conference this week that Morris is getting “healthier”, the Frogs will roll with Hoover for his fourth straight start in Week 11 vs. Texas.

This is a matchup the Longhorns should win, despite potentially not having Ewers back at 100 percent coming off the shoulder injury. Texas has the edge in the trenches on both sides of the ball and better skill talent. This isn’t the same TCU team that made it to the College Football Playoff National Championship Game and beat Texas last season.

TCU lost a significant number of starters on offense and hasn’t consistently shown up on defense this season.

Final score prediction: Texas-38, TCU-24

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