Texas football vs. Iowa State: Prediction and odds Week 12

No. 7 Texas football needs a win over the Iowa State Cyclones and head coach Matt Campbell on the road in Ames in Week 12 to stay atop the Big 12 and ensure a spot in the conference title game. Texas and head coach Steve Sarkisian are also looking to stay in the conversation for a spot in the College Football Playoff in mid-to-late November.

While the Longhorns have won four games in a row entering Week 12, most of them have not come easy to them. Texas hung on against the TCU Horned Frogs for a narrow 29-26 win over head coach Sonny Dykes’ squad on the road in Fort Worth. The win over TCU moves Texas to a 9-1 (6-1 Big 12) record this season.

Iowa State is the best team remaining on Texas’ regular season schedule regarding conference and overall record. Campbell and Cyclones enter Week 12 with a 6-4 (5-2 Big 12) record after a dominant 45-13 win on the road in Provo on Nov. 11 over the BYU Cougars.

Iowa State has won four of its last five contests.

Here’s a look at the betting odds and game prediction as No. 7 Texas travels to Ames to face Iowa State at Jack Trice Stadium on Nov. 18, with the kickoff time set for 7 p.m. CT.

Texas football vs. Iowa State: Odds for Week 12 2023

Texas is a 7.5-point favorite against Iowa State in this game, and the over/under is set at 46.5 points (per Caesars Sportsbook).

The spread has moved a 0.5-point in Iowa State’s favor since the Longhorns opened as an eight-point favorite.

According to the ESPN matchup predictor, Texas has a 78.5 percent chance of beating TCU in Week 11.

Texas football vs. Iowa State prediction

Texas has struggled to cover the spread in the last five weeks. Sark’s squad has only covered the spread once in the last five games. A big reason for that is Texas’ inability to put teams away in the second half when they have 20+ point leads at halftime.

If the Longhorns can jump out to another early lead and keep their foot on the gas against Iowa State, that could be the boost this team needs to close the regular season out on the right foot.

The Longhorns must win for the first time this season without redshirt sophomore running back Jonathon Brooks. The standout running back and 1,000-yard rusher this season suffered an ACL tear that will keep him out for the rest of the campaign.

On paper, the matchups between Texas and Iowa State are pretty close. Iowa State has a good defense and a balanced offense that can possess the football for a long time. Texas needs to play a complete game and get a big outing from redshirt sophomore quarterback Quinn Ewers on the road to get the victory over the Cyclones this weekend.

Final score prediction: Texas-34, Iowa State-21