Texas football vs. Oklahoma State: Prediction and odds Big 12 title game

Mike Gundy, Steve Sarkisian, Texas football (Photo by Brian Bahr/Getty Images)
Mike Gundy, Steve Sarkisian, Texas football (Photo by Brian Bahr/Getty Images) /

The final Big 12 Championship Game in the current rendition of the conference before Texas football and the Oklahoma Sooners leave for the SEC in 2024 will be played this weekend. No. 7 Texas (11-1, 8-1 Big 12) and head coach Steve Sarkisian face the No. 18 Oklahoma State Cowboys (9-3, 7-2 Big 12) and longtime head coach Mike Gundy in the Big 12 title game at the home of the Dallas Cowboys at AT&T Stadium on Dec. 2.

Texas-Oklahoma State in the Big 12 title game is the first conference championship game to kickoff on Dec. 2. It is also the second Power Five conference championship game to take place this weekend, with the first being the PAC-12 Championship Game between the No. 3 Washington Huskies and No. 5 Oregon Ducks on Dec. 1.

If the Longhorns come away from the Big 12 title game with a win this weekend, it will still be alive for a spot in the College Football Playoff. Texas also likely needs help in some of the other conference championship games this weekend, mostly if the No. 14 Louisville Cardinals can top the No. 4 Florida State Seminoles in the ACC title game on Dec. 2.

Oklahoma State is battling for a spot in a New Year’s Six Bowl game and to keep the Big 12 Championship with one of the teams still in the conference in 2024.

Here’s a look at the betting odds and game prediction as No. 7 Texas faces No. 18 Oklahoma State in the Big 12 title game at AT&T Stadium in Arlington, TX, on Dec. 2, with the kickoff time set for 11 a.m. CT.

Texas football vs. Oklahoma State: Odds for Big 12 Championship Game 2023

Texas is a 14.5-point favorite against Oklahoma State in this game, and the over/under is set at 54.5 points (per FanDuel).

The spread has moved a few points in Texas’ favor since it opened at -11.5 last weekend.

According to the ESPN matchup predictor, Texas has an 88.1 percent chance of beating Oklahoma State in the Big 12 title game.

Texas football vs. Oklahoma State prediction

On paper, the Longhorns are a much better team compared to Oklahoma State. Texas has the talent and athleticism advantage at most positions on both sides of the ball, outside of running back.

But Gundy and the Pokes had the Longhorns number in the last decade or so. In the last eight meetings in this series, Oklahoma State has won six against the Longhorns.

That’s why it seems so fitting that Texas gets the opportunity to handily defeat Oklahoma State with a spot in the College Football Playoff and a Big 12 title on the line. Oklahoma State is the only team that stands in the way of the Longhorns winning the Big 12, completing the revenge tour, and potentially making the College Football Playoff.

As long as Texas slows down star sophomore Oklahoma State running back Ollie Gordon, they will be in a good spot to control this game. Oklahoma State’s offense and defense are both outmatched if Texas performs up to their ability in the Big 12 title game.

Final score prediction: Texas-38, Oklahoma State-21

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