Despite a three-game winning streak, including two ranked wins, and despite defeating six ranked opponents in a row, the Texas Longhorns are not favored against the LSU Tigers in Week 11.
Making the early odds even more surprising is the simple fact of how heavily the Tigers have been struggling against ranked opponents this season (at least those who actually belong in the Top 25).
While Texas knocked off the Ohio State Buckeyes, the Tennessee Volunteers, the Ole Miss Rebels, and the Missouri Tigers while they were all in the top 20, LSU fell to the very same Ole Miss team, the then-unranked Kentucky Wildcats, and the Alabama Crimson Tide.
So, it's relatively surprising that the Tigers and head coach Lane Kiffin are favored over Steve Sarkisian and a Texas team that has defeated six straight ranked opponents.
Texas Longhorns enter Week 11 as underdogs for the first time all season
Not to mention that this is the first time all season that the Longhorns haven't been favored from the start of the week.
Odds are courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook.
- Spread: -3.5 LSU, +3.5 Texas
- Moneyline: -170 LSU, +140 Texas
- Over-Under: +/-46.5 points
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Obviously, the Tigers play in one of the most intimidating stadiums in the entire world, boasting Death Valley (officially theirs to claim after defeating the Clemson Tigers earlier this season) as their home field.
However, the Horns were able to defeat both Tennessee and Missouri on the road, completely negating any home-field advantage that either team had. So, why won't they be able to do that this Saturday as well?
LSU is favored by just 3.5 points, so it's a narrow margin, but still. With the point total set at just 46.5 points, the final score would work out to somewhere in the ballpark of 25-21.5, meaning the Longhorns would give up more points than they have in three weeks.
Sure, Death Valley presents whatever advantage that LSU is able to lean into, but the Tigers just lost to Alabama at that very stadium, so clearly the home-field advantage isn't everything.
Furthermore, the Horns are fighting to entirely eliminate the Tigers from the College Football Playoff picture. If Texas wins, LSU would drop to 6-4 overall, and while a three-loss team could easily sneak into the CFP this season, a four-loss team certainly cannot.
With how much distaste teams across the country have for the Tigers, much less with Kiffin as their head coach, a win over LSU in its home would only be made sweeter by ruining its postseason hopes as well.
Simply put, the Longhorns have the perfect opportunity not only to cement their place in the CFP and to ruin Kiffin's hopes of a Playoff appearance in his first season at LSU, but they now have the opportunity to prove the doubters wrong.
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