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ESPN reveals Texas' wild chance of winning the National Championship in 2025

Only a certain number of teams this season have a legitimate chance at winning the National Championship, and Texas is one of them.
ByMatthew Wilson|
Jan 1, 2025; Atlanta, GA, USA; Texas Longhorns head coach Steve Sarkisian and defensive back Michael Taaffe (16) and linebacker Barryn Sorrell (88) and offensive lineman Kelvin Banks Jr. (78) hold up the trophy after a victory over the Arizona State Sun Devils in the Peach Bowl at Mercedes-Benz Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Brett Davis-Imagn Images
Jan 1, 2025; Atlanta, GA, USA; Texas Longhorns head coach Steve Sarkisian and defensive back Michael Taaffe (16) and linebacker Barryn Sorrell (88) and offensive lineman Kelvin Banks Jr. (78) hold up the trophy after a victory over the Arizona State Sun Devils in the Peach Bowl at Mercedes-Benz Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Brett Davis-Imagn Images | Brett Davis-Imagn Images

According to ESPN's computer model, only 10 teams have a legitimate chance of winning this season's national championship. Aside from the usual "powerhouse" names such as Georgia, Ohio State, and Notre Dame, this year's model included the mighty Texas Longhorns.

ESPN's official list of the 10 most realistic national champions for the 2025 season includes, ranked in order from highest to lowest chance:

1. Texas

2. Georgia

3. Ohio State

4. Alabama

5. Penn State

6. Oregon

7. Clemson

8. Notre Dame

9. Miami

10. Texas A&M

The Longhorns are listed at No.1 with a 24.1% chance to win the national championship this year, while one of their rivals, Texas A&M, has the lowest chance at 2.3%. This isn't the first time or organization to have Texas either getting to or winning the big game in 2025, and for good reason.

The Longhorns could have a historically elite defense this season, possibly better than Georgia's 2021 team that set multiple NCAA defensive records. If you said that Texas' front-7 was the best in the league, I don't think anyone would argue with you. Colin Simmons, Ethan Burke, Trey Moore, Anthony Hill Jr., and three 320+ pound incoming transfer defensive tackles will undoubtedly make up one of the most intimidating defensive cores in the nation in 2025.

Offensively, if Arch Manning is half as good as he's supposed to be then I wouldn't worry about the team's ability to score points this year either. He'll have an excellent set of weapons to throw to in Ryan Wingo, DeAndre Moore, Emmett Mosley V, and Jack Endries amongst others. Manning showed the ability to be dangerous with his legs as well in 2024, breaking off multiple long runs when on the field.

Quintrevion Wisner and Co. should also be able to run the ball effectively this year as long as the offensive line unit can gel properly throughout training camp.

It's not hard to see why ESPN and so many others have the Longhorns as a legitimate contender to win it all this season, as they're undoubtedly one of the most complete teams in the league. If Steve Sarkisian and his offensive staff can figure out how to limit the negative plays in the redzone, the sky is the limit for this year's squad.

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