CBS Sports' Bud Elliott just released his annual "Blue Chip Ratio" numbers, and where Texas football has landed (78%) may or may not be surprising to Longhorn Nation.
The BCR (Blue Chip Ratio) is basically centered around how many 4 and 5-star recruits a team has in comparision to players rated 3-stars or less. In order for a team to be a legitimate contender to win a national championship, a team's BCR usually needs to be above the 50% mark.
It doesn't necessarily mean that it's impossible for teams outside of that threshold to make it, it's just a statistic that's been incredibly accurate when looking to past championship success. The last 14 college football national champions have had a BCR greater than 50%, with 2016's Clemson team being the closest or lowest at 52%.
According to Elliott's 2025 numbers, the top 18 teams who have a legitimate chance to win this season's national title in regards to their BCR percentage are:
Alabama - 89%
Ohio State - 89%
Georgia - 84%
Texas A&M - 82%
Oregon - 78%
Texas - 78%
LSU - 73%
Notre Dame - 73%
Oklahoma - 70%
Penn State - 68%
Miami - 64%
Florida - 64%
Auburn - 64%
Michigan - 57%
USC - 57%
Clemson - 55%
Tennessee - 54%
Florida State - 54%
The blue-chip ratio model only counts high school recruits, not transfers. This is mostly due to the fact that no team has been able to win a national title with a starting lineup containing mostly transfer players.
Another big factor, in Bud's words:
"Including transfer player ratings, who are, on average, lacking the upside of the elite high school recruits, makes the rankings less accurate. If you look at the incoming 2025 transfer class, it is lacking at the top. This is, according to people in the personnel space, because teams are doing a better job of holding on to their elite talents with revenue share and NIL money. It looks like the window to even attempt to build through the portal is closing. Programs I spoke with were disappointed in the quality of the portal this year.
All elite programs recruit high school talent at a high level and use the portal to patch holes."
Teams who recruit a large amount of transfer players to their programs are usually struggling teams, or teams that are trying to find immediate satisfaction or help at a couple spots.
The Longhorns have a pretty good BCR at 78%, and that should only get higher over the next few seasons as the team consistently pulls in top 5 recruting classes.