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New bowl projections for Texas and Arch Manning has to be a joke

Someone is making a joke right now...right?
ByEricka Brockish|
Texas Longhorns quarterback Arch Manning (16) leaves the field following the 14-7 loss to the Ohio State Buckeyes in the NCAA football game at Ohio Stadium on Aug. 30, 2025.
Texas Longhorns quarterback Arch Manning (16) leaves the field following the 14-7 loss to the Ohio State Buckeyes in the NCAA football game at Ohio Stadium on Aug. 30, 2025. | Adam Cairns/Columbus Dispatch / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

The Texas Longhorns are 2-1 on the season with a loss to the reigning National Champions, who are now the No. 1 team in the country, and two wins over non-power conference teams. Apparently, that means that Texas is now no longer projected to make the College Football Playoff.

Sure, Arch Manning hasn't looked his absolute best and struggled against San Jose State and UTEP, but that doesn't mean this isn't still a Top 10 team in the country that still has a very real chance at winning the SEC.

On3's Brett McMurphy just released his bowl projections before heading into Week 4 of the college football season, and he must be crazy with where he has Texas. In his projections, McMurphy has Texas playing Michigan in the Cheez-It Citrus Bowl. That is not a bowl in the College Football Playoff, so that is McMurphy saying he doesn't think the Longhorns are making it back this year.

McMurphy has some very interesting picks as he also has Notre Dame in the Pop-Tarts Bowl and Alabama in the Music City Bowl. Well, that Alabama pick might actually be spot on, but to have Texas not making it back to the playoff this season seems completely absurd.

The Longhorns' only loss so far is to the best team in the country, and with the schedule Texas has in front of them, they can afford to lose another game or two and still make it in. The Longhorns have one last non-conference game that is set to take place this weekend as they take on Sam Houston at 8:00 p.m. on September 20. After that, it is all SEC gameplay for the rest of the season.

McMurphy better watch the Longhorns very closely this season because that projection is going to be wrong come the time the committee announces who will be in the College Football Playoff and Texas ends up being one of those 12 teams.

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