2024 Week 5 12-team College Football Playoff rankings prediction
It was an evening of the playing field in Week 4, helping to provide more clarity to the contenders and pretenders for the 12-team College Football Playoff bracket predictions. This upcoming weekend will see the bigger P4 conferences, including SEC football and the Big Ten, firmly enter conference play for pretty much all teams in the mix.
But last weekend saw some consequential results from conference play in the Big Ten, SEC, and the Big 12. Among the P4 conferences, the ACC was really the only one that didn't have many big movers among the top contenders for the 12-team Playoff, outside of the Clemson Tigers.
Post-Week 4 2024 College Football Playoff Predictions with SEC football still dominating at-large bids
Highlighting the top games of the weekend around the college football landscape was the No. 6 Tennessee Volunteers defeating the No. 15 Oklahoma Sooners on the road in Norman by double digits in the SEC. The No. 18 Michigan Wolverines also eked out a win in a thriller to open their Big Ten conference slate against the No. 11 USC Trojans on Sep. 21.
Here's a look at the updated 12-team College Football Playoff bracket predictions, with a group of contenders starting to emerge for the at-large bids from the power conferences after Week 4.
Rank | Team | Why are they here | Previous rank |
|---|---|---|---|
1 | Texas | SEC Champion | 2 (+1) |
2 | Ohio State | Big Ten Champion | 1 (-1) |
3 | Miami | ACC Champion | 3 (--) |
4 | Utah | Big 12 Champion | 4 (--) |
5 | Tennessee | At-Large | 5 (--) |
6 | Alabama | At-Large | 6 (--) |
7 | Ole Miss | At-Large | 7 (--) |
8 | Penn State | At-Large | 11 (+3) |
9 | Georgia | At-Large | 8 (-1) |
10 | Oregon | At-Large | N/A |
11 | USC | At-Large | 8 (-3) |
12 | Boise State | Highest-Rated G5 Conference Champion | 12 (--) |
The only team that completely dropped out of the 12-team Playoff predictions was the Mizzou Tigers, who barely slid by with an overtime win at home over upset-minded Vanderbilt in their conference opener. Mizzou clearly has some issues to work out in the secondary and with the passing game on offense.
The biggest faller this week was the only remaining P4 team in this prediction with a loss entering Week 5, USC and head coach Lincoln Riley. USC is down three spots after its last-minute loss to Michigan in Ann Arbor last weekend.
Penn State was the only team that rose multiple spots in this week's top 12 for the Playoff bracket, mostly thanks to other teams either losing or falling back due to near upset defeats in Mizzou and USC.
Texas football leads the way among the projected conference winners, as head coach Steve Sarkisian's squad moves into the top spot in this Playoff projection after their second straight week of being ranked No. 1 in the AP Poll.
The Alabama Crimson Tide, Ohio State Buckeyes, and Tennessee join Texas among the four P4 teams with at least an 80 percent chance of making the Playoff post-Week 4, per ESPN's AllState playoff predictor.
The three teams on the outside looking in for this week's Playoff projections are Mizzou, Clemson, and Michigan (in order from top to bottom).
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