Texas Basketball: Analytical breakdown of UT's win vs. TCU

A complete-game effort and clutch-time heroics from senior guard Max Abmas led Rodney Terry and Texas basketball to the upset double-digit win over No. 25 TCU in Fort Worth on Feb. 3.
Rodney Terry, Texas basketball
Rodney Terry, Texas basketball / Kevin Jairaj-USA TODAY Sports

Texas basketball and head coach Rodney Terry reeled in an impressive road win by double digits on Feb. 3 against the No. 25 TCU Horned Frogs. Big outings from a few big-time Texas players, namely senior guard Max Abmas in clutch time, led to the 77-66 upset win over TCU at Schollmaier Arena this weekend.

Abmas scored 13 points in clutch-time for the Longhorns, which led to TCU suffering its largest Big 12 loss of the season. It is also just the second time the Horned Frogs have fallen on their home court this season.

This was something of a must-win game for Terry and the Longhorns in the Big 12. Texas is now 4-5 in Big 12 play, with a shot to get a winning record in-conference with a manageable stretch of home games in the coming weeks.

How Texas basketball upset No. 25 TCU

Here's a look at the analytical breakdown of how Texas got the job done with a convincing 11-point win over No. 25 TCU in Fort Worth on Feb. 3.

Four Factors

True shooting percentage



Texas was the slightly more efficient shooting team in this game compared to TCU. The margins were slim, as Texas shot just a fraction of a percentage point better from the field than the Horned Frogs. TCU also outshot Texas by eight percent from beyond the arc.

The difference-maker shooting-wise in this game was Texas going 87 percent from the stripe on 15 attempts compared to just 71 percent on seven attempts for TCU.

Turnover percentage



This was a pretty sloppy game from both teams. Texas and TCU both turned the ball over on roughly one-fifth of their offensive possessions.

The Longhorns coughed the ball up 16 times, the second most of any Big 12 game they've played this season. Texas was fortunate to get away with their 16 turnovers, partly thanks to TCU also turning the ball over 14 times.

Offensive rebounding percentage



Today's win over TCU Texas's second-best offensive rebounding performance of the season and the best in Big 12 play.

Winning the battle on the glass was the biggest reason why the Longhorns won this game against TCU. Texas outrebounded TCU by a margin of 13, which came in large part thanks to a 15-7 edge on the offensive glass.

Those 15 offensive boards resulted in a 17-5 edge in second-chance points for the Longhorns.

FTA Rate



Texas's ability to get to the free-throw line at a higher clip than TCU was the difference of eight points. That was a crucial part of the Longhorns being able to put TCU away by double digits.

Another big difference-maker regarding free-throws in this game was Texas's efficiency from the stripe. Texas shot better than 85 percent from the line against TCU, going 13-of-15 in this game.

Spotty free-throw shooting cost the Longhorns in the overtime loss to No. 4 Houston on Jan. 29 at home and in the Jan. 17 loss to UCF. Texas shot below 65 percent from the stripe in those two losses combined, compared to 87 percent against TCU.

Style Metrics

Assist percentage: Texas-48.3%, TCU-63%

Assist/Turnover Ratio: Texas-0.88, TCU-1.21

Despite ranking in the top half of the Big 12 in assist percentage and assists per game this season, Texas struggled to effectively move the basketball on offense against TCU. TCU's length was an issue for the Longhorns ball movement on offense and in transition, resulting in the aforementioned 16 turnovers in this game.

While TCU was the better team moving the ball compared to Texas, what the Longhorns were able to do well is get the Frogs away from their game offensively. TCU leads the Big 12, averaging over 21 fastbreak points per game this season.

But TCU was forced to play at a much slower pace (which we'll touch on in a bit) while scoring just 16 fastbreak points against Texas.

3PA Rate



Neither Texas nor TCU shot as many three as their accustomed to in this game. Both teams shot a dozen three-point field goal attempts, despite each squad averaging 20 attempts per game from beyodn the arc in conference play.


Texas-62 possessions

TCU-63 possessions

Terry and the Longhorns staff did a nice job figuring out a way to slow TCU down in this game. TCU entered this contest this weekend playing at the fastest pace of any team in the Big 12, averaging around 72 possessions per 40 minutes.

TCU isn't accustomed to slowing down the pace, which forced them to make tougher shots in their settled halfcourt offense. TCU slowing it down often resulted in bad looks on iso plays from their lengthier wings and forwards.

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