It is all about getting hot at the right time. Even though Sean Miller's Texas Longhorns were one of the last teams to make the field of 68, they now find themselves in the thick of things in the Sweet 16. No. 11 Texas has made it out of the First Four with wins over North Carolina State, BYU, and Gonzaga to make it into the second weekend of the tournament. While Purdue will not be easy, Texas has a shot...
This is because Miller's team has seemingly unlocked something special on offense. This team that once struggled distributing the basketball has finally decided that sharing the rock is a good thing. Texas may only average 12.5 assists per game, which is 28th in the country. However, they have increased their assist total with each passing game in the NCAA Tournament from 10, to 14, to 20!
Clearly the way that SEC teams had defended Texas' attack early on in the season is not working in the NCAA Tournament. While NC State was a matchup of lower-end at-larges coming in, nobody in Provo saw BYU getting upset by Texas. The same principle applies to folks in Spokane when it comes to their Zags. The real question is the health of starting guard Jordan Pope coming into the Sweet 16.
Assuming Texas continues to distribute the basketball well, the Longhorns could knock off Purdue.
Texas Longhorns have the shared the rock all the way to the Sweet 16
According to FanDuel Sportsbook, Purdue will be laying 6.5 points to Texas in the Sweet 16. The associated moneylines for this NCAA Tournament game are Purdue -320 and Texas +255. The projected point total comes in at a combined 148.5 points. Based off that, we could be looking at a final score somewhere in the range of Purdue 77.5, Texas 71. Will the Longhorns keep on dancing?
Truth be told, this plays right into another potential upset bid at the hand of Texas. We are so overdue for another Matt Painter masterpiece. What makes this newfound sharing-is-caring Texas team so dangerous is the Boilermakers have a hard time slowing down the pass ahead of makes. While they distribute fantastically at 19.9 assists per game over on offense, they also give them up at will at 14.8.
So even though Purdue is the third best distributing team in the country, they also give up the 284th most assists of anyone in the nation. Add in the fact that they do not force turnovers on defense is problematic as well. When you rank 300th in the country in steals per game and only get the opposition to turn the ball over 10.2 times a game, it is a potential recipe for disaster for the favorite.
Overall, as long as Texas plays loose and with a ton of confidence on Thursday night, the Longhorns will have a real shot at getting to the Elite Eight. Purdue has a bad reputation for playing tight in critical spots. Then again, we finally saw Iowa win one of those games that Fran McCaffery never could. Ben McCollum is in his bag in Iowa City. The same sort of thing can be said about Miller leading Texas now.
As long as Texas does not fall back on bad habits, the closest thing we have to a Cinderella shall stay.
Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.