For much of Steve Sarkisian's tenure at Texas, the argument against making a coaching change has been simple. Moving on would cost the Longhorns a fortune, and the progress he's made rebuilding the program has earned him the benefit of the doubt.
But what happens when those arguments aren't quite as convincing anymore?
Texas has invested heavily in building a championship-caliber roster, yet the Longhorns are once again struggling to meet expectations. Even more troubling is that Sarkisian, widely regarded as one of college football's premier offensive minds, faces questions about his inability to get the most out of two quarterbacks who arrived in Austin with program-changing expectations.
Many were willing to excuse Quinn Ewers never quite becoming the superstar he was projected to be, especially given the injuries that interrupted his development. But now Arch Manning, another former five-star prospect, is struggling to live up to the enormous expectations surrounding him.
What once looked like an unfortunate string of injuries and unrealized potential for one quarterback is beginning to look more like a troubling pattern. And if Sarkisian can't consistently develop elite quarterback talent into elite production, how much longer can Texas justify giving him the benefit of the doubt?
The question for Texas may no longer be whether the Longhorns can afford to fire Steve Sarkisian, but whether they can afford to keep investing this heavily in a program that isn't delivering the results everyone expects.
That's a much different conversation than the one surrounding Sarkisian just a few months ago, and it could become increasingly difficult to avoid if Texas continues to stumble down the stretch. Even seasoned analysts like CBS Sports' Brad Crawford see a less-than-happy ending between Sark and Teas this season.
A loss to Texas A&M could be the final straw for Steve Sarkisian
Crawford's prediction of an 8-4 season being the end of Sarkisian in Austin is indeed bold, but not completely off base.
There are several ways the remainder of Texas' season could play out, and not all of them would necessarily spell the end for Steve Sarkisian. That said, it's hard to imagine a scenario in which another disappointing finish doesn't have serious consequences for his future at Texas.
A 6-6 finish would be particularly difficult to defend. With the resources Texas has committed to its football program, barely becoming bowl-eligible would be a stunning collapse. At that point, the financial burden of firing Sarkisian might become secondary to the damage another season of underachievement could do to the program.
Finishing 7-5 or even 8-4 would likely be a different conversation. Neither record would meet expectations, but Sarkisian's success in getting Texas back into national championship contention could be enough to earn him another season. The difference is that he'd almost certainly enter 2027 on the hot seat, with very little margin for error.
But there's one caveat that could change everything, regardless of the final record.
What if Texas finishes 8-4, and one of those losses comes against Texas A&M?
Losing to the Aggies would be more than just another blemish on Sarkisian's messy resumé. It would give a frustrated fanbase another reason to question whether he's the right coach to lead Texas forward, particularly if the Longhorns have already fallen out of the College Football Playoff picture.
Rivalry losses have a way of changing the temperature around a program, and Texas A&M is exactly the kind of opponent that could turn an otherwise survivable season for Sarkisian into something much more difficult to overcome. The Aggies were a darling pick in the SEC, but have since shown that was false hope. A loss to that team would be a disastrous finish to the season.
There's no indication Texas has already decided to move on from Sarkisian or that it's even on the table, and the financial obstacles to preventing a change remain significant. But if the Longhorns stumble to eight wins and end the regular season with a loss to their biggest in-state rival, it's fair to wonder whether even his enormous buyout would be enough to save his job.
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