A rivalry game is always anyone's to win or lose, even if it is a matchup between the No. 1 team in the nation and their unranked rival.
Based on the early odds coming out of Vegas, that is exactly what experts think of this year's Red River Rivalry between the undefeated No. 1 Texas Longhorns and the Oklahoma Sooners, who are only 2-2 and unranked.
Texas is favored by just 7.5 points, a relatively narrow margin even in a rivalry matchup, and when you look at the history of the sport over the last two decades, a narrow margin in general for a top-ranked team facing an opponent outside of the top 25.
In fact, if the spread holds until kickoff, the Horns would become just the third No. 1 team favored by less than 10 points against an unranked opponent since 2007:
- No. 1 Notre Dame Fighting Irish (-4.5) at USC Trojans (+4.5)
- No. 1 Ohio State Buckeyes (-8.5) at Washington Huskies (+8.5)
- No. 1 Texas Longhorns (-7.5) vs. Oklahoma Sooners (+7.5)
Odds are courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook. Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.
If you are curious, Notre Dame easily covered the spread in 2012, defeating USC 22-13, and Ohio State demolished Washington, winning 24-6 and blowing the spread out of the water. So, if we base our projections on history, Texas should handle Oklahoma with sublime ease.
Narrow spread for Red River Rivalry shows doubt in Texas's offense
However, on that same note, the minimal edge that oddsmakers have given the Horns points to a clear hesitation around going all-in on Texas.
The offense looked shaky throughout the first month of the season, despite quarterback Arch Manning being in his second year as the starter and head coach Steve Sarkisian adding the much-needed weapons around him.
Of course, one could also argue that the oddsmakers are also putting way too much faith in an Oklahoma offense to produce points that it has not against other opponents over the last couple of weeks, and hasn't against Texas in nearly 1,100 days.
Either way you look at it, there are clearly a lot of question marks around these two programs, and a rivalry matchup could always go in any direction.
For the Longhorns, this year's Red River Rivalry is a chance to further affirm their place atop the rankings and send Oklahoma's season to the graveyard. For the Sooners, this game is a chance to keep their season above water and ruin Texas's hopes of maintaining its No. 1 ranking.
As is true every year, there is a lot riding on this game, and it's nearly time to see which team actually has what it takes to lay claim to the Cotton Bowl in 2026.
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