After a rough 2025 season, it would be easy for Vegas to be somewhat down on a Texas football program that entered the offseason in a relatively disappointing fashion. The Longhorns had much higher goals and expectations last season, but due to multiple frustrating issues, Steve Sarkisian and Co. couldn't get the job done.
Having said all of that, it seems like the oddsmakers haven't wavered on their mindset of Texas football and its ability to bounce back in 2026 based on their current win total projection of O/U 9.5.
Not only is the win total tied with Georgia's, but there were a lot of people in the college football world who thought Texas A&M's initial win total would be higher than Texas' based on the amount of sheer talent that they brought in through the transfer portal this offseason.
🚨PATE STATE ALERT🚨
— Josh Pate (@JoshPateCFB) March 13, 2026
SEC win totals released by @FDSportsbook pic.twitter.com/riVlTBpwlg
It's pretty easy to see that Vegas believes that Arch Manning and Texas' offense is going to be much, much better in 2026, which would be the only reason why the win projection is so high right now. Their defense was already above-average, so there shouldn't be much influence from that side of the ball in the oddsmaker's formulas.
Steve Sarkisian sent a message to the college football world this offseason, consistently living up to the "All in" mantra that the program has been embracing since this year's transfer portal period began. In turn, it truly seems like that message has been relayed to the college football world by the oddsmakers with this win total projection.
Watch out world, the Texas Longhorn pain train is coming in 2026.