When Texas began the year as preseason No. 1, there weren’t many, if any, who would’ve guessed that Vanderbilt would be the higher-ranked team by the Commdores’ Week 10 trip to Austin. However, at 7-1, No. 9 Vanderbilt is firmly in the College Football Playoff conversation, and has a chance to all but knock the Longhorns out of the mix on Saturday at DKR.
The good news for Texas is that Arch Manning, who spent the week in concussion protocol after a big hit forced him from the Longhorns’ overtime win at Mississippi State last week. Manning has been far from perfect, but he’s Texas’s best chance at the position, and with him healthy, the Longhorns are home favorites in Week 10.
Let’s take a look at the odds and make a final prediction for Texas and Vanderbilt on Saturday afternoon.
Vanderbilt vs. Texas odds, spread, and total
These odds are available in the FanDuel Sportsbook.
Moneyline
- Vanderbilt +136
- Texas -162
Spread
- Vanderbilt +3.5 (-102)
- Texas -3.5 (-120)
Total
- 46.5 (over -110/under -110)
Betting odds are subject to change
Vanderbilt vs. Texas prediction
This total has climbed to 46.5 with the news of Manning’s removal from the injury report, after the redshirt sophomore QB was originally deemed a game-time decision. That’s good news for me, who was already on the under when it was at 45.5.
Manning has been highly scrutinized all season, but the onus for much of his struggles is on the five guys in front of him. Manning doesn’t have the quickest time to throw, ranking 126th out of 148 FBS quarterbacks with at least 100 dropbacks, but that doesn’t excuse the 42 percent pressure rate that Texas has allowed.
Manning has begun to navigate those pressured dropbacks better, to this point averaging 7.8 yards per attempt, top 20 nationally. Still, Vanderbilt can win at the line of scrimmage and keep the Texas offense off schedule.
Fortunately for Longhorns fans, Texas can do the same to Diego Pavia and the Commodores. Pavia was pressured on 37.5 percent of his dropbacks last week against Missouri, a good SEC defensive line, but not quite Texas’s with Colin Simmons. The Tigers managed that despite blitzing just twice, and against pressure, Pavia went 1-for-6 with two sacks and one scramble.
I don’t see either offensive line holding up long enough, so this game will be decided by defensive splash plays, turnovers, and whichever side can generate enough explosives on offense to put points on the board. I think Vandy narrowly gets it done, but my best bet is the UNDER 46.5.
Final score: Vanderbilt 20 Texas 18
Follow all Josh Yourish’s betting picks HERE