Former Texas football QB Shane Buechele opens up vs. Texas State

Former Texas football quarterback and rising SMU redshirt senior Shane Buechele is set to open up his 2020 season against Texas State this weekend.

The full opening FBS weekend of the 2020 college football season doesn’t have any action occurring around the Power Five conferences. The closest thing that could be considered close to Power Five action this weekend (even though they’re independent) is the BYU Cougars taking on the Navy Midshipmen on Sep. 7. But there are a few former players out of the Texas football program in action with Group of Five programs this weekend.

Definitely the most significant of the bunch to watch this weekend is the former Longhorns four-star quarterback recruit and Dallas-Fort Worth Metroplex native Shane Buechele. This former Longhorn signal caller put his name in the NCAA Transfer Portal following the 2018 season. He landed with head coach Sonny Dykes and the SMU Mustangs last offseason.

Buechele had his best season in college date in his first with the SMU program. Last season, Buechele registered just shy of 4,000 passing yards, 34 passing touchdowns, 10 interceptions, a 62.7 completion percentage, 148.8 passer efficiency rating, and a career-best 8.5 adjusted yards per passing attempt. He added just over 100 rushing yards and two scores on the ground to that tally.

Not only did Buechele have his best season individually in his college career so far last year, he took the Mustangs to new heights. SMU finished up with a 10-win season for the first time since 1984, although they were walloped by the Florida Atlantic Owls in the Bacon Raton Bowl, by the final score of 52-28.

SMU should be one of the favorites to win the American Athletic Conference Championship this fall. They have a plethora of returning weapons, with the redshirt senior Buechele leading the way. The Mustangs are set to open up the 2020 season against the Texas State Bobcats (out of the Sun Belt) on Sep. 5 at 3:30 p.m. CT on the road in San Marcos.

How former Texas football quarterback Shane Buechele matches up vs. Texas State

SMU heads into this game as 23.5-point favorites over the Bobcats. And the ESPN Football Power Index gives the Mustangs an 85.7 percent chance to win this game on the road. Texas State is a significant underdog, and understandably so.

But Buechele actually didn’t play that well against the Sun Belt in his career to date. He’s got more career interceptions than passing touchdowns against Sun Belt opponents, which is largely due to the way he played against the Bobcast last year.

Against Texas State individually, Buechele didn’t have his best individual performance. In a win over Texas State at home last season, Buechele registered 14 completions on 18 passing attempts, for 219 passing yards, two passing touchdowns, and two picks. Although that completion percentage is solid, the touchdown/interception ratio of 1.0 is never ideal.

Even though Buechele struggled with interceptions in SMU’s win last season over Texas State, this feels like a game where he can go off. Former West Virginia Mountaineers offensive coordinator Jake Spavital is entering his second year as the Texas State head coach. And his defense last year wasn’t very good in general.

Texas State finished up with a record of 3-9 (2-6 Sun Belt) last season. But it was their run defense that really struggled. They allowed less than 200 passing yards per game, 2.0 passing touchdowns, all while forcing 1.7 interceptions per game. Texas State allowed more than 215 rushing yards per game, nearly five yards per carry, and more than two rushing scores per game last year.

The opportunity for the SMU offense it seems would lie with the ground game. But a Texas State defense that isn’t returning all that much talent and/or production in the secondary. Most of the projected starters for Texas State in the secondary are underclassmen. The biggest threat that Buechele must watch out for in Texas State’s defensive backfield is rising junior Jarron Morris. Last year, Morris registered a team-leading seven pass deflections and tied for the team lead with two interceptions.

This could be the type of game where Buechele takes more looks on deep passes once the safeties start creeping up if they use the run game frequently. Watch out for rising senior wide receiver and former West Virginia transfer Reggie Roberson Jr. to be a real threat in this game for the Mustangs. Last year, Roberson Jr. registered more than 800 receiving yards (18.7 yards per catch) and six touchdown catches.

Watch out for Buechele to register another solid completion percentage and at least eight or nine adjusted yards per passing attempt. Minimize mistakes, and he could be a threat to put up at least 250 passing yards and three or more touchdowns (with no or a sole pick).