Texas Football: 3 most overrated teams on 2023 schedule
Baylor
Date: Sep. 23 (Waco, TX)
The first true road game of the conference slate is also the Big 12 opener for Sark and the Longhorns this fall comes against head coach Dave Aranda and the Baylor Bears at McLane Stadium in Waco, TX, on Sep. 23. Texas will take on a Baylor team that faced a lot of roster attrition this offseason.
According to ESPN’s Bill Connelly, Baylor ranks 90th in the FBS in returning production this year. For that reason and Texas’ success last season against Baylor redshirt junior starting quarterback Blake Shapen, I think the Bears are one of the more overrated teams on the Longhorns’ schedule this fall.
Baylor’s defense suffered more key losses than the offense. Aranda and the Bears return fewer than half of their starters on defense. That includes the loss of All-Big 12 defensive lineman Siaki Ika to the NFL Draft. Ika was arguably Baylor’s best player in the last couple of seasons.
What Baylor does have returning on defense weren’t their best performers on this side of the ball last season. Only one of Baylor’s returning starters, redshirt sophomore safety Devin Lemear, was in the top half in PFF defensive grade at his position in the Big 12 last season.
Baylor is relying heavily on the transfer portal to replace its lost production on defense, such as former Texas and Utah State senior EDGE transfer Byron Vaughns.
The lone returning starter along the defensive line for Baylor this fall is redshirt senior defensive end Gabe Hall, who had 4.5 sacks and 5.5 tackles for loss last season. Baylor is looking to JUCO transfer and redshirt sophomore Jerrell Boykins Jr. to replace Ika’s production at nose tackle.
At linebacker, Baylor loses its highest-graded starter and leading tackler from last season, senior mike Dillon Doyle.
Lastly, the secondary doesn’t have much returning production outside of the aforementioned standout safety Lemear. Baylor lost four of five starters in the secondary from last year’s squad, including both corners and the starting nickel.
The secondary this fall is young, too, with four of the five projected starters all sophomores.
On offense, Baylor has more returning production, especially at the skill positions. Baylor returns its leading rusher, sophomore running back Richard Reese, who is coming off nearly a 1,000-rushing yard season with 14 touchdowns last fall.
Three of Baylor’s four leading receivers from last year’s squad are also back, highlighted by the elusive junior Monaray Baldwin. Baylor also landed Arkansas transfer wide receiver Ketron Jackson Jr., the projected starter at the boundary spot.
The offensive line is the most concerning position group on offense for the Bears. Baylor loses four of its five starters along the offensive line, including all-conference performers in center Jacob Gall and left tackle Connor Galvin.
Baylor brought in a quality center, former BYU senior Clark Barrington, to replace Gall. Barrington was one of the 15 highest-graded centers in pass blocking each of the last two seasons at BYU.
Although, left tackle will be a concern with redshirt junior Campbell Barrington also transferring from BYU. Campbell doesn’t have as much proven production under his belt during his time at BYU as Clark, with just over 600 offensive snaps in his career compared to more than double for his brother.
Given the turnover Baylor is facing along the offensive line, Texas’ defensive front could give them fits when these two teams meet on Sep. 23 in Waco. Texas already gave Baylor fits in the trenches when these two teams met last season.
Shapen was consistently under pressure in the pocket against Texas last season. And Texas’ defensive backs held their own against Baylor’s receiving corps, limiting the Bears to under 200 receiving yards on the day.
It’s worth noting that Shapen’s lowest-graded start of his career (dating back two years at Baylor) came in the Bears’ loss to Texas last season.