Surprisingly, the No. 11-seed Texas Longhorns have found themselves in the Sweet 16 after having to earn their way into the final bracket with an upset victory in the First Four.
Unsurprisingly, the Horns' opponent, the No. 2-seed Purdue Boilermakers, are favored to win, with the spread set at 7.5 points in Purdue's direction.
However, a recent stat discrepancy in Purdue's game has emerged that, if the Longhorns can capitalize on it, could lead to Texas pulling off its fourth upset of the NCAA Tournament and advancing to the Elite Eight.
Purdue enters the game with a 29-8 overall record. When the Boilermakers have recorded 20 or more assists in a game, they have gone 21-1, but when they have recorded fewer than 20 assists, they have gone just 8-6.
Meanwhile, the Longhorns, who enter the matchup with a 21-14 overall record, have allowed teams to record 20 or more assists on just three occasions all season.
Texas must force Purdue to make its own shots
In other words, something that the Boilermakers rely on to produce offensive success is one of the very things that the Horns excel at shutting down. That's perfect for Texas head coach Sean Miller.
If the Longhorns can force the Boilermakers to create their own shot opportunities on offense, instead of receiving easier shots through assists from teammates, Texas could absolutely disrupt Purdue's flow on the offensive end of the court.
Obviously, on the end of the court, Texas has to create its own offensive opportunities as well, whether that be through the usual stop-and-pops that the Longhorns have favored all season, or via breaking through on the assist game that has been slightly lackluster this year.
The stat to keep an eye on for Purdue/Texas is Purdue’s assist numbers
— Jalen Brown (@jalenpolobrown) March 26, 2026
Purdue’s record when recording 20+ assists this season: 21-2
Purdue’s record when recording fewer than 20 assists this season: 8-6
Texas has only allowed 20+ assists 3 times all season#Hookem #Texas pic.twitter.com/dhqB1BwNnF
In the first Sweet 16 game of the year, the Longhorns and the Boilermakers are scheduled to tip off at 6:10 p.m. CT, and the game will be broadcast on CBS. If Texas pulls off the upset, the Horns would advance to the Elite Eight, where they would face the winner of Arizona versus Arkansas.