The spread for this week's matchup has moved to Texas -6.5 from -7.5, and from a predictive betting standpoint, this isn't a good thing for the Longhorns.
When a number moves closer to 0 for the favored team, it usually means that the betting public is betting on the underdog to win outright or at least cover the spread and keep it close. In this case, people have been betting on Florida to win or cover quite a bit over the past 24 hours. This is pretty odd, seeing as nothing has happened between the two teams over the past week or so.
To be 100% honest, it seems as though Texas has been improving and will potentially have both Tre Wisner and C.J. Baxter back and healthy against the Gators, which "should" have the line moving in the opposite direction than what it is. It's so odd that sports bettors are taking Florida over the Longhorns right now. The Gators have been almost unwatchable in 2025 so far and there's still a chance that Florida QB D.J. Lagway might not even play on Saturday.
He was reportedly "back in a walking boot" following their game against Miami. Though he could be ready for this weekend's game, it's plausible to think that he might not be 100% healthy right now.
Florida's defense has been incredibly bad too, being in the bottom third nationally in most crucial stat categories, with their only win coming by the way of Long Island University in week 1.
Needless to say, the line movement for this game has been incredibly weird. Bettors are going back and forth, changing their minds and betting more and more money on the worse team in the game now. The fact that it's only a 6.5-point spread is crazy. Maybe there's something that Vegas knows that we don't, but none of it makes sense. It's odd that this line isn't 10+ points based on each team's success and 2025 resume'.