On Sunday night, the Texas men's basketball team and its fanbase tuned into CBS' annual Selection Sunday Show with bated breath.
After about 25 minutes of sitting in anticipatory purgatory, Texas basketball saw its name pop up next to Xavier on the 11 line in the Midwest Region. It is the Horns' first time traveling to Dayton to compete in the First Four, but as head coach Rodney Terry said, "... we've been granted 40 more minutes just like everybody else in this tournament and we're excited to compete."
new opportunity 🤘#HookEm pic.twitter.com/O7Z2Hcw7N8
— Texas Men’s Basketball (@TexasMBB) March 16, 2025
Texas (19-15, 6-12) and Xavier (21-11, 13-7) will battle for the right to enter the field of 64 and square off against No. 6 seed Illinois. The Horns and Musketeers tip-off on Wednesday at approximately 8:10 p.m. CT, or 30 minutes after the conclusion of the American vs. Mount St. Mary's contest. The game will be broadcast on truTV.
The Longhorns' inclusion in the tournament not only gives life to Coach Terry's tenure in Austin, but it affords the seven players who have either exhausted their NCAA eligibility or are headed to the NBA a chance to play more meaningful college basketball.
As of Monday afternoon, the Musketeers sit as a 2.5-point favorite over the Horns. Let's dive into the matchup and how Texas can pull off a mini-upset in Dayton.
1. Feed Tre Johnson early and often
Where would this team be without Tre Johnson? It's hard to say, but one thing is certain: they would be much worse.
The SEC Freshman of the Year, SEC Newcomer of the Year, and All-SEC First-Team selection lead the conference with 19.8 PPG. Johnson's individual brilliance on the offensive end of the court often saves the stand-still Texas offense and has single-handedly led to multiple wins.
That said, the last four games have been one of the worst stretches of the freshman's season.
Johnson has averaged just 14.3 PPG on 27.4 percent shooting over the last 10 days. Much of that can be attributed to his 0-14 performance to close the regular season against Oklahoma. Still, I am more concerned with what Tennessee was able to do in its SEC Tournament quarterfinal win.
The Vols held Johnson to just eight field goal attempts, his second-lowest mark of the season. Their game plan was clear: keep the ball out of the talented freshman's hands, forcing Texas' secondary options to become primary scorers.
Expect Xavier head coach Sean Miller to steal this blueprint and ramp up the pressure on Johnson.
In a win-or-go-home scenario, you have to dance with the one who brought you. Regardless of Xavier's defensive game plan, Coach Terry must make a concerted effort to get his star freshman involved early and often. I do not see Texas winning this game unless Johnson goes for 20+.
2. Defensive communication
Xavier head coach Sean Miller is a brilliant offensive mind. He puts his players in great positions to score and always sports a well-coached team that protects the basketball.
This season, Xavier ranks fourth nationally in assist rate, sixth in three-point percentage, and eighth in free-throw percentage. The Musketeers are incredibly unselfish and knock down open looks when given the opportunity.
When matching up with a team that passes, moves, and shoots as well as Xavier, defensive communication is paramount.
All five Longhorns on the floor must be active, attentive, and loud on every defensive possession. Do not get caught ball-watching and attack all close-outs with high hands, regardless of distance beyond the arc.
Texas has been susceptible to defensive lapses this season. Whether it's been a lack of effort or lack of discipline, too often the Horns have given their opponents free runs to the rim or wide-open threes after one ball reversal. That cannot happen on Wednesday night.
Coach Terry hangs his hat on the defensive end. It's time to prove it.
3. Dominate the boards
This Texas team has not been a good rebounding team, nor have they been bad. They are perfectly average, sitting 150th nationally in total rebounds per game and 190th in offensive rebounding percentage.
Luckily for the Horns, Xavier is worse.
The Musketeers rank 276th nationally in total rebounds per game and 316th in offensive rebounding percentage. Of their seven rotation players, only three are listed over 6-foot-4. Comparatively, Texas has six rotations players listed at 6-foot-6 or taller.
Size does not necessarily translate to rebounding. Case in point is Chendall Weaver.
Weaver, who missed nearly all of SEC play with a hip injury, gave the Horns a jolt in Nashville. He averaged over five RPGs in 21 MPG, tied for first on the team. Having Weaver's ability to rebound at the guard spot gives Texas a massive advantage on both ends of the floor.
Look for Texas to attack the offensive boards in the hopes of generating double-digit second-chance points, which directly translates to wins.