Texas Longhorns Looking to Upset No. 5 TCU
On paper, the Texas Longhorns don’t have much of a chance to upset No. 5 TCU on Thanksgiving night. Statistically speaking, the Horned Frogs have a far better offense, and while the Texas defense is incredibly stout, it doesn’t look like the Longhorns would be able to score enough points to keep up with the Frogs’ offense.
Texas is riding a small wave of momentum heading into the Thanksgiving match-up, having won four of their last five games and gaining bowl eligibility with an impressive win at Stillwater over the Oklahoma State Cowboys.
In their last three games, the Texas offense has averaged 30 points as the running game has exploded for nearly 500 yards. While Tyrone Swoopes appeared to be regressing of late, he found himself once again verses OSU, completing over 73% of his passes while throwing for over 300 yards.
The defense has continued their stellar play, holding opponents to nearly 14 fewer points than their average over the course of the season.
But, looking at those numbers, though much improved, it’s hard to imagine that it would be enough to knock off the Horned Frogs.
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After all, TCU boasts one of the best offenses in the country, averaging 46 points per game while their defense is salty enough to keep the Horns from putting up enough points to outscore them.
Yet as any sports fan will tell you, statistics don’t always tell the story. This match-up comes down to far more than numbers.
The Horned Frogs enter this game with a tremendous amount of pressure on their shoulders, most likely the greatest pressure the program has faced in several decades. They have an opportunity to make the four-team playoff this season with a resounding win over the Longhorns. This is their chance to prove that a school that many didn’t think belonged in a power conference not only belongs, but rises to the top.
The question heading into the game is how they will handle that pressure. Will they come out on fire, intending to make a statement, or will it prove to be too much for a young team to handle?
As for the Longhorns, they’ve already captured a bowl bid, which was their goal for the season; nevertheless, they have a huge opportunity in front of them, on Senior Night no less. A win over a top 5 team would go a long way in grabbing the nation’s attention, proving that the Longhorns are on their way back. Additionally, a win over the Horned Frogs would likely push the Horns into the Top 25, and could greatly help grab some recruiting momentum as they head into the finals months of the recruiting season.
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So, what needs to happen for a Thanksgiving upset in Austin?
Assuming that the Texas defense continues to maintain their intensity and level of play, much of this game hinges on offense and special teams.
The offense has to come out sharp. When the Longhorns have scored first, they’ve been hard to slow down. By finding early success, the Longhorns could capture momentum and light a fire under the home crowd. They need to figure out a way to create doubt in the minds of the Horned Frogs from the very beginning.
The running game needs to be successful early on so that the Horns can set the tone and control the clock; Texas does not want this game turning into a shoot-out.
Additionally, the Longhorns MUST play better on special teams. There is no doubt this has been their weakest area this season.
The most important X-factor in this match-up, however, will be the mind-set of each team. All of the pressure will be on the Horned Frogs, who have everything to lose. The Longhorns, on the other hand, have a lot to gain but nothing to lose.
Again, on paper, the Longhorns don’t appear to have much of a chance to score enough to defeat the Horned Frogs. Fortunately for the Texas fans, games aren’t played on paper.