Here We Go Again: Conference Realignment

Oklahoma President David Boren got the ball rolling when he spoke out in support of expanding the Big 12 back to 12 teams. Now published reports are stating that OU was one of four Big 12 schools that had more than casual discussions with the Big 10 in 2010, when Nebraska left the conference.

You see where all of this is heading. It’s been unavoidable. For better or worse the conference realignment wheel won’t stop until we’ve arrived at four 16 team super conferences and everyone who gets left out will become all but irrelevant in the national consciousness.

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As Texas fans, we don’t have to worry about that, but the Longhorns are going to be impacted and there’s a strong possibility that they won’t have full control of their destiny. They could have, but that ship passed them by. Every college football junkie and reporter (is there a difference?) will be chiming in with their opinions. I’m going to lay out mine.

1. Staying in an expanded Big 12

This is the stick your finger in the dyke option. It is also the most likely immediate option. There was a time when this would have been a good move, a conference saving move. However, the Big 12 dropped the ball. Surprise!

It was 2011 and the Aggies had announced their move to the SEC. Speculation was rampant about who the SEC would take as a 14th member. Due to a conference bylaw, the most logical and attractive options: Florida State, Miami, Clemson and Georgia Tech, were all out of play. They were available and they were looking.

Had the conference, or even if Texas and OU had acted on their own, the Longhorns could have found themselves in a country spanning super conference and their future would have been secure. Instead, they sat twiddling their thumbs and allowed the ACC to lock those teams up. Then, just to spit in the Big 12’s black eye, they took Louisville to replace Maryland, taking an attractive expansion candidate off of the table.

So what does the Big 12 do now? From a personal standpoint, I would love BYU and Boise State. I admire those programs and geographically they are a good fit. Also, I would find games against them infinitely more interesting than against Cincinnati or Central Florida.

This won’t happen. BYU is a possibility but Boise has no chance. This is all about TV markets and money. So if the Big 12 expands, Central and/or South Florida are likely. Cincinnati is strong possibility, as is Memphis. Maybe if the Big 12 wanted to get really aggressive and go to 16 teams, Boise might find a seat, but if the conference looks west, San Diego State, with their large TV market and fertile recruiting area, is a more likely possibility.

As I said, we are likely to see some expansion in the next few years. It will amount to a desperate, last ditch attempt to save the conference. At best, it will delay the inevitable. Face it folks, the Big 12 is doomed.

2. The Big 10

I know that there are those in the circles of power who look longingly at the Big 10, especially in academic circles. Every football playing member of the conference except Nebraska (!) is a member of the American Association of Universities (AAU). UT’s desire to be an elite school academically as well as athletically make them an ideal fit for the Big 10.

As for the football, conference games against Ohio State, Michigan and Penn State would be much more appealing than most of our current slate. I haven’t decided about Indiana, Purdue and Northwestern versus Kansas, Iowa State and West Virginia. Life is all about tradeoffs I guess.

Geographically Texas fits better here than in the Pac 12 or ACC. Academically they fit better than in the SEC. There’s little doubt that a move to the Big 10 is a step up from the watered down Big 12. However, weather will be a big factor in late season road games and some of the conference foes are downright ugly.

The biggest stumbling block to a move to the Big 10 is Nebraska. The Huskers bolted the Big 12 in large part to escape Texas and you can bet your last plastic corncob hat that they would fight to keep Texas out of their new digs. I’m not sure the Huskers have the clout to block a Texas move but I’m sure they would try.

3. The SEC! SEC! SEC!

Ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha. No! No! No! Texas will never join the SEC. Accept it.

4. The ACC

From a fan’s perspective, I would rather see the Horns here than in the Big 10. Joining the ACC would put Texas in the dream conference that they could have created for themselves in 2011. However I have a hard time seeing this as a real possibility. I think that if Texas really wants to join a conference where they will be the most remote member they’ll go to….

5. The PAC 12

I pulled hard for this move in 2010 and I am still pulling for it now. If I had to bet on any Texas realignment option this is the one I would double down on. The academics are better than the SEC, with 8 AAU schools as opposed to 4 for the SEC (and they stole two of those from the Big 12). In fact, Texas has been looking long and hard at the PAC 12 since the late 80s and nearly moved there when Arkansas left the SWC.

The travel might be a little longer, but would you rather play a late November game in Los Angeles or East Lansing? I’ll take LA. Sure you’re going to have some late night games but who goes to bed early on a Saturday night anyway? With non-conference games against UCLA last year, Cal the next two and USC on the horizon, one has to wonder if there isn’t some on-going flirting between Texas and the PAC 12.

Texas vs Cal could become a conference game in the future. Mandatory Credit: Jody Gomez-USA TODAY Sports

6. Independence

Sure, Notre Dame has made it work forever and yes, BYU has held their own, but I don’t see this as a good move for the Longhorns. With major conferences getting bigger and the amount of non-conference games getting smaller, scheduling would be a factor. The bowl slate in years in which Texas doesn’t make the playoff would also be more attractive with a conference partner as opposed to trying to negotiate individual pairings with the few bowls that haven’t already climbed in bed with a conference partner.

Besides that, the tide is turning against Notre Dame anyway. Earlier this month, both Missouri’s Gary Pinkel and Clemson’s Dabo Swinney called for Notre Dame to join a conference or be left out of the playoffs. Independence could be a detriment in trying to gain access to a playoff, especially if committee members with ties to specific conferences were to collude with each other to keep an independent out. (Not that such a thing would ever happen. Right?)

7. The OU Question

OU was one of the four Big 12 teams outed last week has having discussed a possible move to the Big 10, along with Kansas, Iowa State and Nebraska. They have flirted with the SEC, who I’m sure would pursue them hard if they believed OU was available.

When Texas lost Arkansas, it didn’t mean that much. Arkansas was always a #3 rival as it was. Losing Texas A&M has had its upside, but Thanksgiving sure isn’t the same without them. Losing OU would be devastating.

There was a time when I never feared such a thing. Texas would always play Oklahoma. Then again, I thought Texas would always play A&M too. Too many prestigous college football rivalries have been sacrificed on the altar of big money to think that Texas-OU is untouchable.

For this reason, I think that Texas and OU should do whatever they are going to do together. I hope that they feel the same. If OU were to unilaterally move to the SEC or to reunite with Nebraska in the Big 10 I’m afraid the Red River Showdown (or Rivalry or Shootout or whatever they call it this year) might not survive. I don’t know that I could handle that.

In the end, this may all be speculation about nothing, but I doubt it. The Big 12 is looking an awful lot like the SWC did in the early 90s. The glory, and more money, are out there for the taking and Texas is the big prize. I just don’t see the conference as sustainable with their current alignment and there is nobody out there that the Big 12 could add that would aid its national appeal. (Notre Dame isn’t coming.) Maybe they take a flyer on a couple of successful mid-sized teams and hope that they can succeed as TCU has. Then again, TCU and Baylor’s recent success didn’t help them last year, did it?

At the end of the day, there is no way around it. The Texas Longhorns will move again. Just when and how long it will take remain to be seen. So where do you think the Longhorns will end up?

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