Texas Football: Reasons For Optimism For 2016

Despite this season’s poor result, there are plenty of reasons for Longhorn fans to be hopeful for better things next year.

The dismal tailspin that was 2015 is over, but the impact of this year will linger for the Longhorns for some time to come.  Clearly, much of the warming feelings and hope that pervaded upon Charlie Strong’s hiring have evaporated, leaving Strong in a must win situation with dark clouds gathering on the horizon.

It was a year that took a toll on everyone and no one felt it more than Strong himself.  You’d have to look far and wide to find a coach who had to weather as many storms as Strong did this year, both on and off the field.  As the song says, if heartaches were nickels, he’d be a rich man.  Oh yeah, he is.  Who knew?

That being said, there are plenty of reasons for Longhorn fans to be optimistic heading into 2016.  I have been as negative about the direction of this team as anyone, but that gets depressing.  So let’s take a look at the reasons why 2016 could be a much better year.

Support                                                    

Steve Patterson is gone and newly permanent AD Mike Perrin and UT President Greg Fenves proved that the strong support they expressed during the season wasn’t just for PR purposes.  It honestly wouldn’t have surprised me if they had dropped the hammer on Strong, but they didn’t and they should be commended for that.

Now, Strong can enter 2016 knowing that he will have the support behind him that Patterson didn’t give.  The school is clearly willing to do what it takes to allow Strong to land an impact Offensive Coordinator, which is a good start.

Speculation is that Strong needs eight wins to return in 2017 but I don’t think he’ll need that many.  As long this team quits getting blown out five times a year, a six wins and a bowl trip would probably be enough, though if I were Charlie I wouldn’t want to test that theory

The New OC

Strong’s biggest mistake upon getting hired was the ridiculous Wickline/Watson fiasco.  Now he gets a do over.  A top notch OC with the ability to groom a quarterback would be a huge boon for this program.  Texas doesn’t need the second coming of Colt McCoy to succeed, especially if the ground game can continue to build on its 2015 success.  A game manager can help.  The obvious hope is that Jerrod Heard can grow and improve from his tough first year.  I’m not convinced that he is the long term answer, and I’m sure Kai Locksley will get a long look in the spring.

Beyond mere quarterback play, simply having a play caller who understands strategy and can find a way to get the ball into the hands of his playmakers would be a blessing.  Plus, having a full off-season to implement and rep the new system as opposed to what happened last year should be a big benefit.

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The Ground Game

Although Texas again failed to field a 1,000 yard rusher, which Texas has only managed to do once since Vince Young ran off to the NFL, the Longhorns run game in 2015 was much improved.  D’onta Foreman came out of nowhere to look like a star in the making.  Chris Warren may be getting a little too much play given that his breakout performance came against one of the worst rushing defenses in the country, but there’s still a lot to like about Warren.  Kirk Johnson teased potential in limited opportunities.

Then there is the offensive line.  Connor Williams, Patrick Vahe and Kent Perkins form a darn good nucleus along the O line.  The graduation of Taylor Doyle and Sedrick Flowers could be addition by subtracting, especially if the new O line coach can groom suitable replacements.  Tristan Nickelson should benefit from his experience and Elijah Rodriguez flashed at time.

2016 will be the year for Jake Raulerson to finally step up and be the bellcow everyone envisioned when he committed to Texas.  He has the experience, now he needs to step up.  There are questions here, but there’s plenty to like.

A Young Defense Matures

This may be more of a wish than a solid foundation piece, but you would expect all the playing time that young players received in 2015 would pay off in 2016.  In the secondary, Holton Hill and Devante Davis appear to have locked down the corner positions.  DeShon Elliott, PJ Locke and Kevin Vaccaro all got valuable experience at safety, with Elliott looking impressive.  Hopefully, they can eventually push Jason Hall and Dylan Haines to the sidelines.  If we can keep Kris Boyd off of Twitter, perhaps he can push John Bonney out of the nickel package.  This could be a nasty backfield.

There aren’t as many reasons to be excited in the front seven.  Malik Jefferson could be a stud if Vance Bedford can figure out how to use him and if he can stay healthy.  Thanks to some minor injuries and a lingering stomach bug, Jefferson saw his effectiveness diminish as the season went along.  Anthony Wheeler showed some skills and could eventually be the middle linebacker Texas has been missing forever.  Breckyn Hager is a fan favorite but he has a long way to go.

Patrick Vahe and Malik Jefferson are just two of many promising young players for Texas. Mandatory Credit: Reese Strickland-USA TODAY Sports

Ridgeway finally blossoms

The hope heading into 2015 was the Hassan Ridgeway would take over Malcolm Brown’s role as a dominant tackle.  That didn’t happen consistently enough and the entire Texas D suffered for it.  Ridgeway battled injuries all year, which no doubt hindered his effectiveness.  When the mood struck him, The Green Mile could take over games, but he too often got swallowed up as well.  With Tank Jackson moving on, a lack of proven play makers among the other returners and the continued struggles of the staff to land recruits at the position, Ridgeway needs to have the monster year everyone has been waiting for.  As a senior, next year he’ll be playing for potential paychecks, so maybe he can deliver.

Charlie The Closer

There are reasons to doubt Charlie Strong as a head coach.  He’s made some questionable decisions when it comes to building his staff, he’s often been outcoached in games and he’s struggled to motivate his team.  However, if there is one area you should not doubt Charlie, it’s assessing talent.  This dude knows football players and he can see the diamonds in the three star rough.  He’s also proven to be one of the best, if not the best, recruiter on the staff.  With high staff turnover likely, Charlie will need to solidify his role as the closer with the 2016 class.

Right now, the class looks nice and includes some nice pieces, but lacks starpower.  Charlie is going to have to buckle down and work even harder than he always does to bring this class from Nice to Great as this may be the most important recruiting class of his career.

Texas Longhorns

Trajectory

We all know the story by now.  Strong took over a stagnant Louisville team in 2010 (ironically the same year the wheels fell off for Mack).  In 2011 he burned it down and started a ton of young guys.  His team struggles through two mediocre seasons.  Then, in Year Three, BOOM!  Instant success.  Louisville blossoms and spends the next two years kicking butt and taking names, including blowout bowl wins over Florida and Miami.

Now Texas has struggled through two mediocre seasons (if you want to generously label 2015 mediocre).  This year he burned it down and played a ton of young guys.  If history holds, all signs point to a huge rebound next year.

Of course, just because it worked once doesn’t mean it will work again and Texas plays in a much tougher conference than Louisville did.  Still, there is hope that Strong will work his third year magic again.  No one should expect twelve wins and a Sugar Bowl, but eight wins and an Alamo Bowl would be enough.

Schedule

As bad as this year was, Texas was good enough to have had legitimate chances to beat Oklahoma State, West Virginia and Texas Tech.  You would have to imagine that Iowa State couldn’t beat Texas in back-to-back years.  Cal should drop off without their first round draft pick quarterback and TCU could fall back in the pack without Trevonne Boykin and Josh Doctson. Plus, Strong has shown that he can get his team up for Oklahoma.

On the other hand, Notre Dame should be loaded again and you can’t count on catching Baylor playing guys they picked up on a street corner at quarterback again.  Mike Gundy has turned OSU into a tough date and could be better next year.  You know that the purple wizard will have Kansas State playing better.  Road trips to Manhattan, Lubbock and Stillwater are daunting but not unwinnable while Notre Dame, TCU, Baylor and West Virginia all come to Austin.  If Texas gets off to a good start, there might actually be a homefield advantage  for many of those games.